There's been a lot of talk about what Republicans can or should do to increase their odds of success at the ballot box in 2024 and beyond. Some of that talk has been about tactics – as is happening over early voting.
Early voting is just what it sounds like: people casting ballots before Election Day, often with no excuse required. While no-excuse early and absentee voting has cut down on the number of little white lies people have told registrars for decades in order to cast an early ballot, Republicans tend to be against early voting entirely.
The reasons are flimsy to downright baffling. Writing in The Wall Street Journal, Arthur Herman says Republicans should “embrace” early voting, not only because it isn't going to go away, but also because ignoring it – or openly opposing it – means they may face an even bigger Election Day disappointment in 2024:
According to Gallup, from 2010 to 2014 Republicans had the edge in early voting. But in the 2018 midterms, the GOP lead had slipped to 46% compared with 44.7% for Democrats. By the Biden-Trump election, the Democrats had a 54% to 32% advantage over Republicans, with 38% of independents voting before Election Day.
This suggests that Republican early voters, combined with a majority of their independent counterparts, could overwhelm the Democrats—but not if their candidates wait for Election Day to bring home the vote.
The GOP didn't always fear early or absentee voting. Like so many of the party's current bizarre habits, the anti-early voting animus took off during the Trump years. Consider this item from 2012:
While early voting favored President Obama over his Republican challenger John McCain in 2008, and in-person early voting the weekend before an election in some specific instances does favor Democrats, Republicans have traditionally dominated early voting.
Michael McDonald, a professor at George Mason University who tracks early voting, says the 2008 campaign, in which Obama benefited from early voting, was an exception, not the rule.
“As far as we can tell, looking back at statistics of the overall national pattern, generally Republicans voted early prior to 2008 and in 2010 reverted back to that pattern,” McDonald said.
Early and absentee voting is not going away. If the GOP chooses to ignore, deride or restrain it, they won't just be ceding a key tactical advantage to Democrats, they will continue to underperform once all the votes are counted.
Of course, tactics alone won't solve the GOP's underperformance problems. As has been the case for decades, nominating candidates with broad appeal and a positive message tends to win. Nominating angry conspiracy mongers is a recipe for failure.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.
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