ANALYSIS – While it may sound far-fetched, the Russian military is taking the threat of a Chinese invasion of Siberia seriously.
This, according to recently leaked Russian military documents describing numerous scenarios where China might intervene in sparsely populated, but resource-rich, Russian Siberia.
Most concerning, many of the scenarios entail Moscow using a tactical nuke against China to stop its giant neighbor with 130 million people near Russia's Far East borders. (RELATED: Putin's Mountain ‘Palace' With ‘Nuke Bunker' Destroyed By Fire)
And the documents reported by the Financial Times, and dating from 2008 to 2014, show that it wouldn't take long for the Kremlin to use nukes. Russian forces appear ready to go nuclear very early in any conflict with China, based on their “escalate to de-escalate” doctrine.
Moscow's threshold for using nukes is likely far lower for a nuclear-armed power like China (or the U.S.), than a country without nukes, such as Ukraine.
“The order has been given by the commander-in-chief … to use nuclear weapons … in the event the enemy deploys second-echelon units and the South threatens to attack further in the direction of the main strike,” the document said, referring to China, according to the British newspaper.
“This is the first time that we have seen documents like this reported in the public domain,” Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin, told the Financial Times.
“They show that the operational threshold for using nuclear weapons is pretty low if the desired result can't be achieved through conventional means,” he added. (RELATED: Shadowy US Special Ops Forces Train For Nuke ‘Doomsday' Scenarios)
The FT also noted that these documents show “the [Russian] military establishment's deep suspicion of Beijing even as leaders Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping began forging a ‘no limits' partnership.”
Making the risk more ominous, experts note that Russia is reinforcing and exercising its nuclear-capable missiles in the Far East near its border with China. And many of these nuke systems only have the range to hit China.
While it hasn't commented on this news, China is likely not too happy. Though Beijing most assuredly has its own war plans against Russia too.
The sensitive Russian documents are made up of 29 secret files, including war-gaming scenarios and presentations for naval officers.
Meanwhile, Newsweek reported that:
The leaked materials indicate that Russia's eastern military district has actively prepared for various scenarios involving a Chinese attack, underscoring the pivotal role Russia's nuclear arsenal plays in its defense strategy. Such preparations suggest a complex relationship with China, juxtaposing public alliances with private contingencies for conflict.
In a written response on Thursday, China's embassy in Washington, D.C., declined to comment on what it called “unverified information.”
“As a principle, China is firmly committed to a defensive nuclear strategy and has always kept our nuclear capabilities at the minimum level required by national security. We have no intention to get involved in any nuclear arms race with any country. China has a unique nuclear policy among nuclear weapon states and has maintained a high level of stability, consistency, and predictability,” the embassy told Newsweek.
To understand how the Vladimir Putin might see one of these China scenarios play out, the Financial Times noted:
“In one war game scenario, China pays fake protesters to clash with police in Russia's Far East, then sends saboteurs to covertly attack Russian security infrastructure. Once tensions reach a boiling point, China increases defense production and ominously deploys army units at the border as it accuses Russia of ‘genocide.'”
Other scenarios involve growing presence of Chinese nationals working and living in Russian Siberia as a prelude to war, as well using Kazakhstan as a jump off point to attack western Siberia.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.
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