Tuesday, June 25, 2024

Winners and Losers: Youngkin Edition


The whole election came down to 70,000 votes.

For me, this is the fun part where I look at my own MS Excel charts — yes, old habits die hard — with my own special math and reflect on what I got right and what I missed.

Despite counsel otherwise, Princess Blanding of the Liberation Party did not make a sizable impact. The generic ballot was probably even, right where Christopher Newport University put it (I had it at D+2). Youngkin winning the race by 5-8 points? Pure bunk and the people peddling it should be ashamed of themselves — such rumors drove up Democratic turnout.

I had also assumed a universe of 2.6 million (most assumed 2.3 million) and over 3 million Virginians voted. Early voting cut both ways as Republicans and Democrats both enjoyed the advantages and reaped the benefits.

Yet by and large, the election really did pivot on about 30,000 votes — slightly more than I anticipated given the 70,000 vote margin.

Things were close and Republicans fought for every vote — and won despite the odds.

On to the Winners and Losers:

WINNERS: The Most Diverse Ticket in