New Pentagon Report Shows China’s Nuclear Ambitions Outpacing Previous Predictions

While U.S. foreign policy remains heavily fixed on Ukraine, a new Pentagon report shows China is on track to grow its arsenal of nuclear warheads from 400 to more than 1,500 by 2035.

The Pentagon's newest predictions far outpace their last assessment just two years ago, Business Insider found. In 2020, the Pentagon believed China's stockpile of nuclear warheads to be in the “low-200s and expected to at least double by 2030,” according to the DoD's report to Congress. In two years' time, the Communist state rapidly accelerated its production, prompting new DoD estimates of Chinese nuclear warheads at more than 400.

“By 2030, DoD estimates that the PRC will have about 1,000 operational nuclear warheads,” the Pentagon said. The report further predicted that most of the warheads “will be fielded on systems capable of ranging the United States.” The Pentagon believes, at the current pace, that China will field a stockpile of 1,500 by 2035.

The potential scale of their arsenal compared to that of the United States is concerning. Russia and the United States own 90% of the world's nuclear warheads, with each possessing around 4,000, according to estimates from the Federation of American Scientists. While 1,500 stands in sharp contrast to the United States' roughly 4,000, Beijing's marked acceleration in production and repeated characterization as a “pacing threat” should be cause for alarm.

Only nine nations maintain nuclear warhead inventories. While China and Russia are both actively increasing their stockpiles, the United States is the only nation to instead decrease its arsenal. Information declassified by the Biden administration last year revealed the U.S.'s 2020 nuclear arsenal included 3,750 warheads, according to one government fact sheet. This represents an 88% reduction from the end of the Cold War in 1989.

The stockpile increased by 20 warheads during former President Trump's term, but the Biden administration this year reaffirmed its commitment to the “goal of a world without nuclear weapons.” China, meanwhile, refuses to engage bilaterally with the United States on steps to minimize the risk posed by nuclear weapons, Reuters reported just last month. President Xi Jinping instead vowed to strengthen China's nuclear deterrent.

“If that's the argument that Beijing is giving, we're not asking to have a discussion about numbers,” said Richard Johnson, U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense for Nuclear and Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction Policy. “We're saying, let's talk about putting some guardrails into the relationship so that we don't have unnecessary crises,” he said.

The Pentagon named Russia an “acute” threat in its most recent National Defense Strategy. China's ambition to strengthen its nuclear deterrent means it will sooner, rather than later, replace Russia as the U.S.'s most pressing challenge.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.

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