ANALYSIS – It could happen. “May we live in interesting times.” Things that seemed impossible or outlandish just a few years ago are increasingly probable and even likely today. This may be one of them.
I have written about the possibility of China gaining Russian territory in Siberia before. And Russia has held major wargames playing out just such military scenarios.
But is now the best time for Beijing to act?
Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te has recently asked that question. If China is genuinely concerned with reclaiming lost lands, why not focus on retaking territories ceded to Russia in the 19th century, rather than Taiwan?
Among other reasons, it would remove China's reliance on Russian energy by gaining control of Moscow's oil and natural gas reserves near its northern borders with Siberia.
It would probably be a lot easier for China to do that right now.
The Telegraph explains:
With so many Russian troops tied up in Ukraine, it's hard to imagine Putin having any left to do anything about it should China decide to move north. At one point last year, then British defence minister Ben Wallace said that 97 per cent of the Russian army was believed to be in Ukraine. The situation doesn't seem to have changed a lot: when Ukraine launched its incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast, no regular troops could be found to mount a defence. Instead, teenage conscripts were thrown into the fight while Russia's regular troops remained on the battle front to the southwest.
The outlet adds:
China is probably not yet ready to mount a complex air-sea invasion of Taiwan, with the mighty USA at its back. But it would have no real difficulties making land invasion into Russia. Putin for his part is no doubt acutely aware of the strategic importance of Russia's Far East, particularly Vladivostok. It's the headquarters of Russia's Pacific Fleet and a crucial gateway to the resource-rich Arctic. However, this region has long been disputed by Russia and China, with grievances dating back to the 19th century when the Qing dynasty ceded large swathes of land to Russia after the Second Opium War. Despite the passage of time and several treaties, many Chinese nationalists still view this territory – including Vladivostok, Russia's gateway to the Pacific – as land that was unjustly taken from China.
This is why the Taiwanese president deftly cited the “unequal” 1858 treaty signed by the Qing government which saw China ceding territories to Russia, and suggested Beijing reclaim those lands “for the sake of territorial integrity.”
“If it is for the sake of territorial integrity, why doesn't it take back the lands occupied by Russia that were signed over in the Treaty of Aigun? Russia is now at its weakest, right?” Ching-te added.
And while the Taiwanese president was being more rhetorical than realistic, there are good reasons for Beijing to consider it.
The Telegraph provides a few:
Beijing has declared itself a “near-Arctic state” and is becoming increasingly active in Arctic affairs, eyeing the Northern Sea Route along Russia's Arctic coast. Control over Vladivostok and the surrounding region would not only give China a stronger foothold in the Pacific but also better access to these Arctic shipping lanes, which could cut the distance between Europe and Asia by about 40 per cent.
So, the idea of China regaining lost lands in Siberia isn't as far-fetched as some might think. It may not happen soon. It may not happen militarily. More likely, it will happen in a reverse process of unequal treaties, where weakened and impoverished Russia is coerced into ceding back these territories to China, voluntarily and peacefully.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.
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