Iran Can’t Break US Navy Blockade – Can It Survive Anyway?

PAUL’S DEFENSE BRIEF (PDB): Some claim the Iran war’s ramifications have only just begun. That possibly the most consequential result of Trump’s eight-week war is that Strait of Hormuz now looks, in practice, like “STRAIT OF IRAN.”

However, more likely — Iran is grasping for solution to U.S. blockade it can’t break. Siege reveals hole in Tehran’s strategy of guerrilla warfare and controlling Strait of Hormuz. For almost five decades, Iran’s Islamic government has survived financial pressure from U.S. by selling oil to China. It confronted American military might with guerrilla tactics.

Tehran thought it was gaining the upper hand after the war started in February as it attacked ships crossing Strait of Hormuz, shutting down commercial traffic and blocking one-fifth of world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies. Six weeks into conflict, U.S. counter punched by blockading shipments from all Iranian ports.

That shut down Iran’s network of shadow ships, which for years defied U.S. sanctions on Iran’s substantial oil exports by going dark at sea before clandestinely transferring their cargoes to China. But now the tankers have been unable to breach cordon of U.S. warships that have chased them all the way to Indian Ocean.

The war has imposed a heavy cost on Iran’s economy, with more than a million people out of work, soaring food prices and a prolonged internet shutdown that has slammed online businesses. Its crisis-hit economy is now facing the risk of collapse.

FOR YOUR EYES ONLY – Here’s a roundup of the top defense news of the last couple of days from conservative national security expert PAUL CRESPO.

THE PDB – Not the President’s Daily Briefing, but almost as good – PAUL’S DEFENSE BRIEF:    

NATIONAL SECURITY

What this means for U.S. – In Sept. 2010, following collision between Chinese trawler and Japanese coast guard vessels near Senkaku Islands, China halted shipments of rare earth minerals to Japan. The move disrupted supply chains for everything from consumer electronics to advanced defense systems, driving immediate shortages and cost spikes.

HOMELAND SECURITY

Trump signed bill to fund Department of Homeland Security, including Coast Guard, after 76-day partial government shutdown. ICE and Border Patrol were not included.

Soldier at Fort Polk, La., was charged by federal prosecutors for saying online that he would kill Jewish people in synagogue.

Why recovery speed matters when homeland is the cyber battlefield. The homeland is now a frontline battlespace, with cyberattacks targeting essential services, critical infrastructure and military readiness.

DEFENSE POLITICS

Ceasefire ‘stops’ War Powers clock on Iran. War Secretary Pete Hegseth controversially claimed fragile ceasefire with Iran means that Trump does not yet have to seek congressional consent to extend the war.

US POWER OVERSEAS

Some senior officers highlighted benefits of U.S. presence in Germany, day after Trump said he was reviewing whether to reduce troop numbers in the country.

Trump said “probably” when asked whether he would consider pulling U.S. troops out of Italy and Spain, day after announcing U.S. was looking at reducing number of military personnel in Germany.

The four-star generals and admirals who lead U.S. regional combatant commands have all requested support of amphibious ready groups and Marine Expeditionary Units (MEUs).

Pacific Marines will be first to test new pilot-optional helicopter. The biggest of the aircraft planned for Marines’ arsenal of unmanned flying logistics trucks to be put through its paces at one of Corps’ littoral regiments in Pacific next year.

‘Electrical malfunction’ aboard Navy guided-missile destroyer in Indo-Pacific led to temporary loss of power and propulsion.

IRAN CAMPAIGN

Meanwhile, Top U.S. military leaders, including head of Central Command, briefed President Trump on potential military action against Iran.

Pentagon official publicly placed cost for Operation Epic Fury at $25 billion. True cost may be closer to $50 billion.

Operation Epic Fury has sunk Iran’s largest naval ships, degraded its air defenses and killed many of its top leaders. But war reveals vulnerabilities of U.S. Middle East bases.

IRAN WAR GLOBAL IMPACT

Great for U.S. – From oil shocks to UAE’s exit, a timeline of OPEC’s 7 defining moments. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries faces its toughest challenge since its founding, with loss of key member – the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – amid largest global oil supply crisis, triggered by U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. Timeline: 50 years of OPEC.

CHINA THREAT

China dominates the world’s lithium supply. U.S. just found 328 years’ worth in its own backyard.

RUSSIA THREAT/UKRAINE WAR

Russian shadow airlines use Algeria as base for secretive missions. Fleet of Russian military-affiliated cargo aircraft has made over 100 flights to Algeria over past year, likely delivering fighters and equipment to bolster an increasingly important Russian ally at Europe’s southern flank, and using country as hub to project Russia’s power deeper into Africa.

Ukraine’s top general ordered mandatory two-month time limit for front-line troops serving in forward positions, week after photos of emaciated soldiers sparked a nationwide outcry.

EUROPEAN DEFENSES

Romania will now be able to acquire counter-unmanned aerial system technology through U.S.’s counter-drone marketplace.

Romania picks Rheinmetall’s Lynx KF41 infantry combat vehicle in $4 billion acquisition to replace outdated Soviet-times MLI-84 tracked vehicle.

INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

What post-Orbán Hungary means for Hungarians and Europe. After 16 years of rule by Viktor Orbán, opposition leader Péter Magyar has emerged the winner by a landslide.

US MILITARY

Air and Space forces requesting $24.8 billion for Weapons System Sustainment program for FY 2027, with almost all the funding going toward Air Force after years of declining mission capable rates across service’s aircraft fleet.

For first time, Air Force is asking Congress for $1 billion to fund production and purchase of Collaborative Combat Aircraft, marking beginning of “loyal wingman” era.

Army looking for meatless proteins for field rations. Also wants to manufacture them on front lines to ease burdens on supply chain.

Navy-wide drive to ensure sailors don’t have to live aboard ship or in floating dorms when in port received boost at Naval Base Kitsap with opening of 152-room unaccompanied housing unit.

VA shuttering underperforming clinics, addressing leadership shortcomings at others. VA medical center in Georgia and two clinics in other states undergoing changes or closures as result of department’s review of veterans’ medical services.

FOR MORE DETAILED, UNCENSORED, INTELLIGENCE, AND ANALYSIS FROM PAUL CRESPO, SUBSCRIBE TO HIS SUBSTACK.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.

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