Is Iran War Reaching Culmination? What About Democrats’ DHS Blockade?

PAUL’S DEFENSE BRIEF (PDB): The Democrat blockade of DHS continues to weaken our ability to counter growing domestic terror threats. Even as last few days saw some escalation in the Middle East, with Iran launching missiles at Israel and Saudi Arabia, injuring U.S. service members.

Iranian-backed Houthi rebels have also joined the fight with intensified strikes.

President Trump has demanded Iran reopen Strait of Hormuz, while global markets have hit new lows amid rising oil prices. Still, U.S. and Israel have even greater Iran strikes planned in near future, and potential ground assault, or blockade, of key Iranian islands, such as Kharg, could quickly and dramatically change the conflict’s dynamic.

And much more.

FOR YOUR EYES ONLY – Here’s a roundup of the top defense news of the last couple of days from conservative national security expert PAUL CRESPO.

THE PDB – Not the President’s Daily Briefing, but almost as good – PAUL’S DEFENSE BRIEF:    

NATIONAL SECURITY

War in Ukraine transformed conflict. Iran is proof. Open-ended military conflict in Europe could intersect with open-ended military conflict in Middle East. 

Senate defeated legislation that would have blocked President Donald Trump from continuing war against Iran without congressional authorization, the third unsuccessful attempt to limit his military power since conflict began. 

Trump says he doesn’t call Iran conflict a “war” due to concerns that Congress hasn’t authorized military force. 

59% of Americans feel U.S. military offensive against Iran has ‘gone too far,’ polls say. But depends on how survey questions are asked.

Navy admiral tapped as new head of U.S. nuclear forces endorsed finding by Energy Department and Pentagon that U.S. nuclear arsenal is safe and reliable and doesn’t need nuclear warhead tests. 

You don’t need to believe in global warming ‘hoax’ to see the polar ice cap is quickly receding. I witnessed it myself during recent visit to Arctic. Winter Sea Ice in the Arctic Ties a Record Low.Winter sea ice in the Arctic reached a level that matches the lowest since satellite monitoring began in 1979. 

DEFENSE POLITICS

During Pentagon’s monthly Christian prayer service, War Secretary Pete Hegseth prayed for “overwhelming violence” against “those who deserve no mercy.”  As many U.S. leaders have done before.

War Secretary Pete Hegseth said U.S. military chaplains will no longer wear their rank insignia, instead displaying symbols of their faith. 

Debate about AI lethal autonomy—core to Trump administration’s fight with Anthropic —obscures deeper danger of Pentagon’s rapid adoption of commercial AI tools: they might weaken military’s ability to tell fact from fiction. 

Military’s fabled ‘human in the loop’ for AI is dangerously misleading.

Senate quashed effort by Democrats to overturn VA ban on abortions or abortion counseling for VA patients. 

HOMELAND DEFENSE

Russian tanker near Cuba tests U.S. resolve on blockade.

HOMELAND SECURITY

Chinese ‘terrorist’ who fled to China after leaving explosive device outside MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa has been indicted along with his terrorist sister in Florida on federal charges, their mother has been detained pending deportation for overstaying her visa.

Ex-NSA leaders say Americans are becoming ‘numb’ and apathetic to cyber threats and U.S. still lacking hardline strategy to deter foreign adversaries and their hacker operatives. 

40-day shutdown of DHS has led to several missed paychecks for Coast Guard’s civilian employees and “grim uncertainty” of potential missed pay for its military members. 

Coast Guard operations, capabilities damaged by continued shutdown, says vice commandant.Active-duty Coast Guard personnel have been paid through DHS shutdown, but standoff is impacting civilian employees, recruiting, maintenance and non-emergency operations.

U.S. forces conducted strike in Caribbean Sea against narco fast boat, killing four narco terrorists. 

It sure has, despite this critical story. War zone, minus the war: One year later, has military really secured U.S.-Mexico border? President Trump’s emergency declaration expanded military power, blurred legal lines and helped spread use of military-grade technology. 

US POWER OVERSEAS

U.S. military testing new ‘Curtain Call’ drone swarm to shield troops deployed to Africa from unmanned aerial attacks, relying on commercial technology to produce swarms of counter-drones and sensors to serve as protective wall. 

Pentagon split combined U.S. Forces Japan and Fifth Air Force into separate commands, ending dual-hatted arrangement in place for more than 60 years. 

IRAN CAMPAIGN

As Marines head toward Iran, boots on ground still TBD. “It’s not a cakewalk, but if I was the Iranian military, I would be afraid that the Marines are coming,” one retired Marine colonel said. 

Iran and U.S. harden positions as Tehran keeps its grip on Strait of Hormuz and thousands more U.S. troops neared the region. 

Pentagon weighing to redirect weapons originally meant for Ukraine to Middle East, as war in Iran strains supplies of some critical munitions.

U.S. has deployed uncrewed drone speedboats for patrols in operations against Iran, first time Washington has confirmed using such vessels in active combat. 

How advanced is Iran’s nuclear program? President Trump launched military strikes on Iran after several rounds of talks over ending country’s nuclear program and uranium stockpiles. 

Proxy pressure on Iran: Promise and pitfalls of arming Kurds. Early in war, Trump team and Israel, believed they could foment popular uprising to topple Iranian regime. Part of that plan involved arming Kurdish fighters to infiltrate Iran from Iraq. Idea had intuitive logic. 

WAR’S REGIONAL/GLOBAL IMPACT

How many people have been killed in the US-Israeli war on Iran? Almost 3,500 people have been killed in Iran, mostly military. Over 1,000 have been killed in Israeli attacks targeting Hezbollah in Lebanon. 88 have been killed in Iraq. Iran has killed 31 people in attacks on its Gulf neighbors. 18 Israelis and four West Bank Palestinians have been killed by Iranian missiles, and two Israeli soldiers in Lebanon. U.S. has lost 13 military personnel. 

As Israel trades fire with Hezbollah, calls for mass evacuations and sends ground troops deeper into Lebanon, its leaders hint at long-term occupation to serve as a security buffer from Hezbollah, modeled on conquest of much of Gaza after war with Hamas. 

Why hasn’t U.S. used force to secure Strait of Hormuz? Since war against Iran began, Tehran has retaliated by targeting commercial ships in Strait of Hormuz, effectively shutting down narrow channel of water. 

Iran was always going to close Strait of Hormuz. Trump’s five-day deadline to open Strait of Hormuz expired Friday and the Islamic Republic needs to “get serious before it is too late” – the president has announced.

Iran’s ‘Tehran toll booth’ forces some tankers to pay millions to leave Strait of Hormuz.

CHINA THREAT

President Trump will travel to Beijing for rescheduled China summit with Xi Jinping trip May 14-15, after delay due to Iran war. 

China’s top chipmaker SMIC, has supplied chipmaking tech to Iran military, raising questions about Beijing’s stance in month-old U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran.

Axis Behind Iran: How China, Russia, and North Korea Sustain Tehran’s Military.

RUSSIA THREAT/UKRAINE WAR

British forces preparing to board Russian shadow fleet ships in UK waters. Move meant to “starve Putin’s war machine.” 

Russia says it shot down almost 400 Ukrainian drones in what was the largest reported overnight attack on Russian regions and Crimea since Moscow’s forces invaded Ukraine. 

Volodymyr Zelenskyy said U.S. conditioning post-war security guarantees on Kyiv ceding Russian-occupied Donbas, as Washington pushes for swift end to the war. Zelenskyy warned such terms would weaken Ukraine’s defenses and embolden Moscow, 

Ukraine struggling to secure fresh commitments from NATO allies to purchase U.S. weapons. 

Iran war deflects attention from Ukraine as emboldened Russia starts spring offensive.

EUROPEAN DEFENSES

German army eyes AI tools capable of analyzing battlefield data more rapidly than humans to expedite wartime decision-making.

Top NATO officer says allies must urgently rethink defense, prepare for ‘new enemy.’

MBDA, Europe’s biggest missile maker, to double production of its top-of-the-range Aster air-defense missile in 2026, an “absolutely massive” jump in response to surging demand. 

Europe can’t rely on U.S. to supply continent with sufficient quantities of air-defense missiles and needs to step up local production of interceptors.

France to spend additional $9.8 billion for munitions through 2030, with high-intensity warfare in Middle East and Ukraine showing need for more mass. 

SPACE THREATS

Space Force conducted second Tactically Responsive Space mission, Victus Diem—but instead of preparing and launching a live rocket and satellite on rapid timelines, exercise was simulated to refine processes for repeatable rapid launch missions. 

Space Force to build physical test and training range with mix of ground and space-based systems, with solicitation for multi-vendor contract worth $981 million to design, develop, integrate, and sustain it.

Space Force to revise launch plans for number of upcoming national security missions following recent issue with United Launch Alliance Vulcan rocket that could take months to resolve. 

INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

Volkswagen in discussions with Israeli defense company Rafael Advanced Defense Systems to convert its struggling part factory in Osnabrück, Germany, into production site for components of Iron Dome air defense system. 

Pakistan’s military resumed operations against Afghanistan after temporary pause, dashing hopes of permanent ceasefire. 

US MILITARY

Pentagon and BAE Systems and Lockheed Martin agreed to quadruple production of infrared seekers for Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptor. 

Pentagon announced three agreements with prime defense manufacturers to surge production and delivery of missile systems and components. 

Navy looks to ‘surge capacity’ for Golden Fleet, setting up one-stop-shop for medium unmanned surface vessels (MUSVs) that carry swappable, containerized payloads in faster, multi-mission deployments. 

Army sprinting to field drones and counter-drone systems throughout its units, but there are handful of capabilities they’re still seeking to make these new systems viable in combat. 

Army seeks sled-mounted mobile air defense for light infantry that lack ability to transport heavy equipment. 

In sweeping change to enlistment regulations, Army raised maximum age for eligible recruits to 42.

END of PDB

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