Former President Donald Trump holds a slight advantage over Vice President Kamala Harris heading into Labor Day weekend, according to a forecast from polling expert Nate Silver. This projection, rooted in Silver's well-known analytics blog, positions Trump as the favorite in the 2024 presidential election.
Recent national polls have shown Harris either even with or slightly ahead of Trump, including in several key swing states. However, Silver's model, which focuses heavily on the Electoral College, indicates that Trump has regained a narrow lead.
The Hill reported that, while Harris holds a 3.8-point lead in national polls, Trump currently has a 52.4% chance of winning the Electoral College if the election were held today. In contrast, Harris' chance stands at 47.3%.
“Some of this is because of the convention bounce adjustment that the model applies to polls that were conducted during or after the Democratic National Convention,” Silver wrote on his Substack on Thursday. “It assumes Harris's polls are somewhat inflated right now, in other words — just as it assumed Trump's numbers were inflated after the Republican National Convention.”
A Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll, released Thursday, had Harris leading Trump by an average of 2 points across seven battleground states. When the poll was restricted to likely voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, she was up by 1 point, within the poll's margin of error.
And a new survey from Emerson College Polling and The Hill, released Thursday morning, found that Trump and Harris are essentially tied in each of the battleground states.
Since she replaced President Biden as the party's presidential nominee, Harris has closed the polling gap with the former president, erasing the lead Trump had while he campaigned against the incumbent president.
A Decision Desk HQ/The Hill aggregate of polls currently has Harris at 49 percent, nearly 4 points higher than Trump's 45.1 percent.
Silver noted that his projections could shift if Harris maintains her post-convention momentum in the coming weeks.
Who do you think will win the 2024 presidential election: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris? Or is the race too close to call? Let us know in the comments below!
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I awlays knew most democrats are dumb, but their support of Harris is about the dumbest thing they could do. Are they really that stupid? Low information voters and/or “always vote blue” voters must be the most uninformed people in our country. How sad for our country.
I think most of the polls are bias. Most of the construction workers that I’ve talked to, they are voting for Pres. Trump. We may lose re-electing Pres. Trump if Soros and the democrat puppets account the 20M+ illegals they imported in with the people’s moneys.
Very Sad ! he should be way ahead
After Kamala’s “interview” it’s abundantly clear to me that US Citizens have to make a choice that will decide the future of our children’s lives and our country.
Trump, who has proven he has the capability and experience required to initiate the policies and procedures necessary to get the USA back on the 1.2% Inflation rate, 4% Interest rate, $1.86 gal gas, and corporate and personal tax rates that create more jobs, and deport the vicious criminals. Who has been the victim of persistent law-fare, an assassination attempt, and cursed, insulted, lied about, and unfairly convicted by a carefully selected biased jury of crimes without a shred of actual, verifiable, evidence or trustworthy witnesses, simply because he is capable of actually Making America Great Again. A billionaire businessman who could have chosen to spend the rest of his life taking it easy, but chose to spend his time visiting the Gold Star Families of the 13 soldiers who died in Afghanistan because Biden and Kamala decided not to give the command to kill the suicide bomber that was spotted in time to prevent the horrible deaths and injuries that day. Who chose to purchased tractor and trailers full of provisions and head to East Palestine, Ohio to help the citizens, while Biden lounged in the White House ignoring them. Who attended the wake of a New York police officer killed in the line of duty, while Biden dined with wealthy campaign donors on the other side of town. A man who intend to deport the criminal illegals Kamala and Biden have allowed to swarm across our borders, causing injuries and deaths of thousands of American men women and children by fentanyl poisoning, rapes, and cold blooded murders. A man willing to risk his life and liberty to provide all US citizens freedom, prosperity and safety.
Or Kamala, whose “policies” are apparently so detrimental and destructive to American and U.S. Citizens she will not even reveal them to us at all. Who proudly admitted she was the last person in the room with Biden and said “President Biden made the courageous and right decision to end America’s longest war.” Who made that statement when she was fully aware that the suicide bomber was spotted by the soldiers in time to prevent the catastrophic bombing and contacted Biden to obtain permission to shoot and kill him, and leaves one wondering if she was also in the room and whether it was hers or Biden’s decision to refuse to give the order. At least 182 people were killed, and 150 injured because of that decision.
I for one will not settle for a “pig in in a poke” who is incapable of seeing that the Afghanistan pull out was a massive debacle and definitely not a courageous or right decision.
Someday, an intelligent, patriotic, and strong woman with run for President. And I will gladly vote for that woman.
This time, I will vote for Trump.