In the latest Bloomberg News/Morning Consult tracking poll, President Joe Biden marked his best performance yet in key battleground states. Saturday’s survey comes amid a swirl of criticism over his debate performance and growing unease within his party.
The survey showed former President Donald Trump up 7 points in Pennsylvania but down 5 and 3 in Michigan and Wisconsin, respectively.
And only up 1 point in Georgia.
Battleground States Breakdown
All Swing States: Trump leads by 2 points
- Arizona: Trump leads by 3 points
- Georgia: Trump holds a slim 1-point lead
- Michigan: Biden leads by 5 points
- Nevada: Trump leads by 3 points
- North Carolina: Trump leads by 3 points
- Pennsylvania: Trump leads by 7 points
- Wisconsin: Biden leads by 3 points
Despite a disastrous debate, and with nearly 30% of Democrats suggesting he should withdraw, Biden has made significant progress in six of the seven battleground states examined.
The Bloomberg survey stands in contrast to other surveys that have been released since the debate.
National Poll Insights
Recent national polls indicate a slight to moderate increase in support for Trump. This shift has significantly impacted the political landscape over the past week, moving key battleground states into his camp and putting previously secure blue states at risk.
- New York Times/Siena College Poll: Trump leads by 6 points nationally, up from a 4-point lead before the debate.
- Wall Street Journal Survey: Shows a similar trend, with Trump leading by 6 points, a notable increase from his 1-point lead in February.
- CBS News Survey: Trump has a 2-point lead, a modest 1-point increase from mid-June.
Bloomberg further reports on the poll results that die-hard Biden supporters began promoting as soon as they were released:
Swing-state voters thought Biden acquitted himself poorly in the debate, with fewer than one in five respondents saying the 81-year-old was the more coherent, mentally fit or dominant participant.
The poll results land as the Democratic Party finds itself in an extraordinary bind mere weeks before its nominating convention. To pressure Biden into releasing delegates would be to abandon a candidate who has beaten Trump before and has portrayed his debate debacle as the latest surmountable setback in a career marked by personal tragedies and three previous White House campaigns.
But the poll shows that sticking with Biden would mean backing a nominee about whom voters have deep misgivings, especially about his age and acuity. Nearly three in 10 Democrats said Biden should drop out of the race — far more than the 9% of Republicans who said Trump should do the same.
Factors Influencing Poll Results
Bloomberg’s Gregory Korte and Mark Niquette highlighted additional important points that might have affected the reported numbers.
- Campaign Spending
- Biden and his allies have recently outspent their Republican counterparts 5-to-1 in the states surveyed, potentially impacting voter outreach and perceptions.
- Supreme Court’s Presidential Immunity Ruling
- The ruling granting presidents immunity for official acts, but not unofficial ones, might have affected voter sentiment. The timing of the poll responses coinciding with this ruling could have swayed some opinions, particularly among persuadable voters and disillusioned Democrats.
Nevertheless, the survey found noticeable underlying problems with the Biden campaign, similar to the others since the debate.
Voter Enthusiasm and Sentiment
- Support for Continuing Campaign
- In swing states, only 39% of voters support Biden continuing his campaign, compared to 50% for Trump. This reflects a significant enthusiasm gap that Biden needs to address.
- Undecided Voters
- The majority of undecided voters, who have unfavorable views of both Biden and Trump, believe that Biden should step aside. This dissatisfaction suggests a potential weakness for Biden and a potential opportunity if another candidate were to replace him.
Conclusion
The most recent polling data offers a nuanced view of the 2024 presidential race. Despite criticism of his debate performance, not all polls are equally troubling for the president. However, he is facing economic and national security concerns as well as voter enthusiasm and economic issues.
