The Cook Political Report, a respected nonpartisan election forecaster, has shifted its rating for the Wisconsin Senate race from “Lean Democrat” to “Toss Up.” This change, announced Tuesday morning, signals a much more competitive contest between incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin and Republican challenger Eric Hovde.
Hovde, initially seen as a longshot, has gained significant momentum, with recent polling showing a tightening race. The development comes amid broader concerns that Democrats in key battleground states are underperforming. It also suggests that the Harris campaign’s concentrated spending in key blue wall states—Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania—is failing to gain traction.
The Hill offers further details:
Baldwin, the two-term incumbent, has led throughout the campaign but has hit choppy waters as the race hits the final month. A recent poll by the Cook Political Report showed Baldwin leading by 2 points (49 to 47 percent), with similar internal polls on both sides of the aisle helping them cement the ratings change.
A polling average from The Hill and DDHQ, meanwhile, has Baldwin leading by 4.3 percent.
President Biden won the state in 2020 by 20,000 votes and less than a percentage point. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) won reelection in 2022 by a single percentage point.
This is, by far, Baldwin’s toughest reelection battle. She skated to a second term in 2018, but Republicans are sensing an opportunity.
Both parties are now focusing heavily on early voting efforts in Wisconsin, a state that has become a national political focal point. With Election Day approaching, turnout is expected to be high.
On Tuesday, the Hovde campaign ramped up its efforts in Waukesha County, a Republican bastion, conducting a canvassing blitz to energize its base and ensure high voter participation.
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The Republican silent majority will come forward on election day and win the battle.