A hit to Republicans…
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has shifted its rating of the 2026 Texas Senate race from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican” this week as the GOP primary between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton marches on.
The ratings change comes as polls consistently show Paxton leading Cornyn in the Republican primary. However, in hypothetical general election polling, Paxton appears more vulnerable against Democrats than Cornyn does, according to The Hill.
The dynamic has encouraged Democrats about their chances in the Lone Star State, which has not seen a Democrat win statewide since 1994.
Former Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas), who lost his challenge against Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) last year, has jumped into the Democrat primary along with retired NASA astronaut and Air Force pilot Terry Virts.
President Trump has remained silent on endorsing a candidate in the intraparty contest as Paxton and Cornyn are both considered allies of the president. Cornyn told NBC News earlier this week that Trump has told him he is not ready to endorse in the race.
“I’ve talked to him about it a number of times. He is not ready to make that endorsement,” the senator told the network. “I think as we start advertising and closing the gap in the polls, hopefully he’ll see fit to make that endorsement, but we can’t wait.
“I pointed out to him, and he knows this, that if he endorsed me, the race would be over.”
The shift in the Texas Senate race comes days after President Donald Trump pushed Texas Republicans to redraw the state’s congressional map in a bid to add five new GOP-friendly U.S. House seats ahead of the next year’s midterms. (RELATED: Trump Eyes Redistricting Blitz To Add 5 More GOP Seats In Texas Before 2026)
Texas currently holds 38 House seats — 25 Republican, 13 Democrat. To carve out more red territory, state lawmakers would need to undertake a mid-decade redistricting effort, something rarely attempted. GOP leaders plan to tackle it during a special legislative session starting July 21.
Critics have called the move a blatant power grab, warning it could dilute Black and Latino voting strength and open the door to racial gerrymandering lawsuits. Some Republicans agree the plan is a legal and political gamble, potentially weakening solid red seats by spreading GOP voters too thin.
READ NEXT: Texas at the Crossroads: The Constitutional Madness of Racial Redistricting
