Is China Racing Toward Nuclear Parity – Or Superiority – Over The US?

PAUL’S DEFENSE BRIEF (PDB) – China has tripled its nuclear arsenal to 600 warheads in just five years, enough to begin to shift the strategic balance, if still well short of the thousands held by the U.S. and Russia. But it’s still expected to double that number by 2030.

How big will China’s nuclear arsenal get? I say, prepare for the worst.

“China’s trying to catch up because, you know, they’re, they’re very substantially behind, but within five or six years they’ll be even,” President Trump said in February.

Even likely means when China’s total arsenal matches the number of warheads actively deployed by the U.S. or Russia. In 2022, DOD projected that China could have 1,500 warheads by 2035 — the year Xi has called for the PLA to “basically” achieve modernization. 

China’s nuclear trajectory indicates that the country will, at a minimum, seek effective parity at the regional level. But it may just as likely seek global parity, matching other powers’ arsenals when all functioning nuclear warheads are counted.

This would include warheads that major powers currently deploy and those held in reserve, as well as strategic warheads with massive explosive power.

This would require a colossal undertaking. The U.S. possesses 3,800 warheads across its stockpiles. Or China could strive to surpass the U.S. and Russia and seek nuclear superiority, an even scarier proposition.

FOR YOUR EYES ONLY – Here’s a roundup of today’s other top defense stories ending the week from conservative national security expert PAUL CRESPO.

Not the President’s Daily Brief, but almost as good – PAUL’S DEFENSE BRIEFING – the PDB:    

NATIONAL SECURITY

Trump’s 2026 defense budget marks a turning point for U.S. space policy, with the newly unveiled Golden Dome missile defense program reshaping DOD spending priorities and expanding the role of Space Force.

How an AI called NITMRE could prevent airlift nightmares. Moving military cargo across an ocean in a hurry is a tough job. Air Force flight crews and planners must juggle diplomatic clearances, airfield conditions, availability of troops and equipment to move pallets, and who to talk to when plans change.

Are CISA cuts making America safer? Current and former cybersecurity officials clash at Black Hat hacker conference.

Cheap Iranian drones, costly U.S. defenses spur sanctions and technology push. Iran’s expansive drone program creates a lopsided problem: cheap, expendable aircraft that can evade detection and cost much more to shoot down than to build.

HOMELAND SECURITY

Army sergeant shot five soldiers at one of the country’s largest Army bases before he was quickly tackled by other Fort Stewart troops, forcing a brief lockdown.

Shooting of five Army soldiers at a base in Georgia is the latest in a growing list of violent occurrences at military installations over the years.

22-year-old Fort Bliss soldier was arrested after attempting to provide Russia with military combat operations and details on Army tanks that he gained through his top-secret security clearance.

A detention facility constructed out of tents at Fort Bliss, Texas will begin housing migrants detained by federal agents on Aug. 17.

Coast Guard Cutter Escanaba’s crew offloaded approximately 11,922 pounds of cocaine worth an estimated $88.2 million at Port Everglades, Florida.

WOKE WATCH

Defense Secretary Hegseth announced the “Reconciliation Monument” sculpture will return to Arlington National Cemetery in coming weeks, the latest move to return symbols honoring the Confederacy to military sites.

DEFENSE POLITICS

VA ends ties with most federal unions, terminating worker collective bargaining contracts, upending employment agreements for hundreds of thousands of department workers.

DOD nearing Trump administration’s goal of downsizing the defense civilian workforce by 5-8% through voluntary reduction efforts as it approves 55,000 deferred resignations.

Trump names himself chair of L.A. Olympics Task Force, sees role for military during games. In past Olympic Games held in U.S., sitting presidents have served in ceremonial roles. Trump may have other plans.

US POWER OVERSEAS

During rare call-up, Reserve Marines from California conducted a mock amphibious assault on Pohang Beach, South Korea, part of their first active-duty call-up in five years.

IRAN THREAT – MIDDLE EAST

Israel is weighing its options in Gaza. Here are 4 scenarios for where things may be heading. Israel has routed its enemies across the region but has yet to return all its hostages from Gaza. Hamas appears decimated militarily but has kept up insurgent attacks. Gaza is in ruins and maybe sliding into famine, and long-running ceasefire talks seem to have broken down.

Egyptian minister calls West’s response to Gaza suffering shameful and urged powerful Western nations to increase pressure on Israel.

CHINA THREAT

Russia, China simulate attack on enemy submarine and an amphibious ship and rehearsed a submarine rescue during a recent five-day joint exercise in joint Sea of Japan drills.

RUSSIA THREAT – UKRAINE WAR

Trump could meet in person with Vladimir Putin as soon as next week as he seeks to broker an end to the Russia-Ukraine war.

Russia asks Central African Republic to replace Wagner with state-run Africa Corps and pay for it.

NATO has formally condemned recent Russian malicious cyber activities, describing them as a threat to Allied security and an extension of the Kremlin’s ongoing hybrid warfare campaign.

NORTH KOREA THREAT

South Korea’s KF-21 fighter to get stealthier with internal weapons bays, now known as the KF-21EX.

SPACE THREAT

United Launch Alliance’s new ‘Vulcan’ rocket is scheduled to fly its first military space launch next week.

Army will begin recruiting soldiers for first dedicated enlisted specialty in space operations, part of a broader push to build organic expertise as satellites become increasingly critical to modern ground warfare.

Army moving out on counterspace, working on new space policy to serve as the “umbrella” for a new space strategy and doctrine.

INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

Trump’s sweeping new tariffs take effect against dozens of countries.

Spain has decided against the acquisition of a fleet of American-made F-35 fighter jets, instead opting to focus exclusively on potential rival Eurofighter Typhoon or Future Combat Air System (FCAS) orders.

Northrop Grumman has signed a new Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the Lithuanian Ministries of Defense and Finance to expand co-production of medium-caliber ammunition.

A majority of people in five nations – Brazil, Colombia, Greece, South Africa and Spain – believe that weapons companies should stop or reduce trade with Israel as war in Gaza continues.

US MILITARY

New variant of the AGM-114 Hellfire missile with a warhead that can articulate, or be set to focus its blast in different directions depending on the target, is in the works for special operations community.

Army to hold a competition to pursue a high-energy laser system focused first on countering drones.

‘Shark attacks’ may be coming back to Army Basic Training. Nearly five years ago, the Army moved away from the practice of several drill sergeants surrounding trainees and yelling at them to establish dominance at the start of basic training — a practice known as a “shark attack.”

How the Army’s S&T community is looking to meet Hegseth’s ‘drone dominance’ charge. How do you build over 100 unmanned aerial systems on short notice? That problem spurred an idea for how to potentially address a key directive from SECDEF.

Air Force is looking to buy two Tesla Cybertrucks for use as targets for precision munitions during testing and training. It says it needs them specifically because of the prospect of adversaries using them in the future.

Austal USA started construction on its second Heritage-class Offshore Patrol Cutter (OPC), Icarus (WMSM 920), as part of a contract that includes options for up to 11 cutters with a potential value of $3.3 billion.

END of PDB

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.

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