Democrats in New Jersey are increasingly worried that Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) may face a tougher path to victory in the state’s upcoming gubernatorial election, following signs that she could struggle to energize Black and Hispanic voters, according to a report from The Hill.
The concerns come as Republicans have gained millions of registered voters nationwide since 2020, while Democrats have shed roughly 2.1 million, including a notable decline in key New Jersey suburbs and urban centers that Democrats have long relied on for heavy minority turnout.
Minority Turnout a Key Concern for Democrats
Party insiders and community leaders told The Hill that Democratic enthusiasm among minority voters — particularly Black and Hispanic residents — appears lukewarm, raising fears that turnout could dip below levels needed to secure a statewide win.
“I believe that although our next governor has to represent the entire state — and we’re okay with that — but where do black people land in the conversation?” asked Dr. John Harmon, founder and president of the African American Chamber of Commerce of New Jersey. “We should be at the top of the food chain, particularly from the Democratic Party side.”
Harmon added that many voters are drawn to candidates who follow through on promises, invoking President Donald Trump as an example.
“I don’t want to bring President Trump into this conversation, but I will say whether you love him or hate him, he’s doing what he says he’s going to do. That’s what New Jersey voters want from their next governor.”
Democratic Strategists Privately Admit ‘Apathy Problem’
One Democratic strategist told The Hill that the party’s “real concern” this cycle is voter apathy among “black and brown” voters — a trend that mirrors turnout struggles seen nationally in 2024.
“The same apathy or the same turnout concern that we saw what happened in November — I think it’s a real concern, especially with black and brown voters for this cycle,” the strategist said.
While the strategist credited Sherrill for campaigning in diverse communities, they admitted it remains unclear whether those efforts are yielding results.
“Mikie and her team have done a really good job of trying to go into the communities. I don’t know that we’re going to know how well it’s actually resonating until people vote.”
Sherrill’s Campaign Pushes Back
Sean Higgins, a spokesman for the Sherrill campaign, told The Hill that the congresswoman remains focused on “economic empowerment and inclusion” as the pillars of her outreach to minority voters.
“Mikie recognizes that economic empowerment strengthens communities of color,” Higgins said in a statement.
Sherrill has also received a series of high-profile endorsements and campaign visits from national Democrats, including Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) and former Rep. Gabby Giffords (D-AZ).
However, some party insiders remain uneasy about what they view as an overly cautious strategy.
Progressives Slam Sherrill’s ‘Safe’ and ‘Milquetoast’ Campaign
According to NJ.com, several Democratic operatives privately expressed frustration that Sherrill’s campaign has been “too safe,” relying heavily on anti-Trump messaging rather than bold policy proposals.
“People think she’s not running the race that she should be running,” one Democratic operative said. “They think that she’s playing it too safe, and they think that she’s putting all of her marbles in Trump. That’s a very dangerous thing to do.”
Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, echoed that criticism, calling her approach “milquetoast.”
“We hope Sherrill wins,” Green said. “But it’s looking very likely she underperforms, and it’s because of her milquetoast campaign message.”
A Tight Race in a Blue-Leaning State
Current Democratic Governor Phil Murphy is term-limited and cannot seek reelection, leaving an open seat that Republicans hope to flip with former GOP state lawmaker Jack Ciattarelli.
A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll released Friday showed Sherrill leading Ciattarelli 52% to 45%, with 3% undecided — a smaller margin than Democrats have typically enjoyed in New Jersey’s statewide races.
The warning signs come after Donald Trump’s strong showing in New Jersey during the 2024 presidential election, when he narrowed Democrats’ advantage from 16 points in 2020 to just about 5 points.
With early voting set to begin soon, Democrats fear that lower enthusiasm among core minority blocs could open the door for a surprise Republican upset — even in one of the nation’s reliably blue states.
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