Disgraced former Congressman George Santos is once again under federal scrutiny, this time over allegations that he may have profited from insider trading on the prediction market platform Kalshi.
According to ABC News, federal regulators are investigating whether Santos manipulated a market tied to his own attendance at President Donald Trump’s February 2026 State of the Union address, potentially earning tens of thousands of dollars in the process. The investigation stems from suspicious trading activity that Kalshi reportedly referred to both the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Department of Justice.
Sources familiar with the matter told ABC News that Santos allegedly placed wagers on Kalshi predicting that he would not attend Trump’s State of the Union speech. Yet on Feb. 23, Santos publicly posted on social media, “I’ll be in the gallery” for the president’s address.
The following evening, however, Santos posted a dramatically different message:
“Watching SOTU from an airport tv was not part of the plan! FML.”
His absence immediately raised questions among prediction-market traders because the market involved an outcome Santos himself could directly influence. According to multiple reports, Kalshi flagged the activity after noticing unusual trades and referred the matter to regulators for further review.
The CFTC’s enforcement division is now examining whether Santos intentionally misled the public regarding his attendance plans in order to affect betting odds and profit from the outcome. Sources told ABC News investigators are evaluating whether the trades generated gains worth tens of thousands of dollars.
Neither the Justice Department nor the CFTC has publicly commented on the investigation.
When NPR asked Santos about the reported probe, he responded:
“Well, that’s news to me.”
Asked whether he maintained a Kalshi account, Santos replied:
“I’m not saying yes, I’m not saying no.”
Growing Scrutiny of Prediction Markets
The Santos investigation arrives amid growing concern about insider trading and market manipulation on prediction platforms such as Kalshi and its rival Polymarket.
Prediction markets allow users to wager on real-world events ranging from elections and economic indicators to geopolitical developments and public appearances. Kalshi, which is regulated by the CFTC, has increasingly emphasized its efforts to police insider trading after several high-profile cases drew scrutiny from lawmakers and regulators.
Congress recently launched inquiries into both Kalshi and Polymarket amid concerns that individuals with privileged information could exploit the platforms for profit.
Federal authorities have already pursued insider-trading-related cases involving prediction markets. One case involves a U.S. special forces soldier accused of profiting from wagers tied to the operation that removed Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro from power. Another involves a Google software engineer accused of placing trades based on nonpublic company information.
A Political Career Built on Fabrications
For Santos, the latest controversy is merely the newest chapter in one of the most extraordinary political scandals in recent American history.
The New York Republican burst onto the national stage after winning a House seat in 2022. But shortly after his election, journalists uncovered that large portions of the biography Santos presented to voters were fabricated.
Among the claims later shown to be false were assertions about his educational background, Wall Street career, family history, charitable work, and personal finances. The revelations triggered multiple investigations by federal prosecutors, New York authorities, and the House Ethics Committee.
In 2023, a House Ethics Committee investigation concluded that Santos had engaged in a “complex web of unlawful activity” involving campaign funds and personal enrichment. Investigators alleged he spent donor money on luxury goods, travel, cosmetic procedures, personal debts, and other non-campaign expenses.
The House of Representatives ultimately expelled Santos in December 2023, making him only the sixth member in U.S. history to be removed from Congress.
His legal troubles deepened when federal prosecutors charged him with multiple fraud-related offenses. Santos eventually pleaded guilty to wire fraud and aggravated identity theft. In April 2025, a federal judge sentenced him to seven years in prison.
Although Santos served several months behind bars, President Trump later commuted his sentence, allowing his release. Santos subsequently acknowledged that the commutation did not erase his wrongdoing, stating publicly that he was “not getting away” with his crimes. (RELATED: Trump Frees George Santos – But New York Prosecutors May Have Other Plans)
Another Test for Regulators
The Santos investigation could become one of the most prominent tests yet of how regulators handle alleged insider trading on prediction markets.
Unlike traditional insider-trading cases involving stocks, prediction markets often revolve around events that participants may be able to influence directly. Regulators have increasingly warned that trading on nonpublic information—or manipulating outcomes for financial gain—could undermine confidence in the rapidly growing industry.
Whether federal investigators ultimately conclude that Santos crossed that line remains to be seen. But for a former congressman whose political rise and fall became synonymous with deception, the allegations ensure that his legal troubles are far from over.
READ NEXT: Homeless Man Accused Of Random Killing On Atlanta Train Faces Federal Death Penalty Charge
Sponsored
Enough is Enough: America’s education system is in serious trouble and our children need your help! Support conservative victories in classrooms, communities, and school boards nationwide. Help the 1776 Project PAC and join the fight to save America’s classrooms!
