Via Zero Hedge by Tyler Durden
Update (2035 ET): On Tuesday evening, Trump revealed he has ordered a “total and complete blockade” of all sanctioned oil tankers going into and out of Venezuela. This, he said on Truth Social, is based on Venezuela’s leadership having been declared a “foreign terrorist organization.”
He further boasted of the country having been “completely surrounded” with the “largest Armada ever assembled in the History of South America.”
“For the theft of our Assets, and many other reasons, including Terrorism, Drug Smuggling, and Human Trafficking, the Venezuelan Regime has been designated a FOREIGN TERRORIST ORGANIZATION. Therefore, today, I am ordering A TOTAL AND COMPLETE BLOCKADE OF ALL SANCTIONED OIL TANKERS going into, and out of, Venezuela,” Trump said.
He then warned, “It [the blockade] will only get bigger, and the shock to them will be like nothing they have ever seen before — Until such time as they return to the United States of America all of the Oil, Land, and other Assets that they previously stole from us.” Minutes after the announcement:
WTI OIL UP AS MUCH AS 1.6% AS TRUMP RAISES VENEZUELA PRESSURE
This is expected to impact some 800,000-9000,0000 barrels of oil per day, which is forecast to increase prices by some $2-$3 in the short term.
Some initial Congressional reaction and fierce pushback as Washington is on a war-footing:
The full Trump message on Truth Social:
The House is set to finally vote on a proposed War Powers resolution related to Venezuela on Thursday.
* * *
Update (1314 ET):
By now, readers are well familiar with the Trump administration’s use of gunboat diplomacy in the Caribbean off Venezuela’s coast. That has ranged from blowing up suspected drug-running boats to seizing one massive shadow fleet tanker tied to sanctioned oil flows.
The strategy is very simple: follow the money. By targeting the maritime arteries that finance the Maduro regime, Trump’s Pentagon is applying direct pressure aimed at regime change in Caracas.
Another artery being clogged is inbound supertankers to Venezuela, with a new Bloomberg report on Tuesday morning specifying that four tankers reversed course following the seizure of the Skipper last week by U.S. special forces.
Here’s more from the media outlet:
The vessels are the Panama-flagged Bella 1, which was sanctioned by the U.S. for its involvement in the illicit transport of Iranian oil, and the tankers Seeker 8, Karina, and Eurovictory, according to data from maritime intelligence firm Kpler.
Ship movements show that the Seeker 8, the Karina, and the Eurovictory all turned around on Dec. 11 — a day after U.S. forces seized a vessel off Venezuela’s coast. The Bella 1 reversed course on Tuesday near the Caribbean island of Antigua and Barbuda, the data tracked by Bloomberg show.
Related:
If the Trump administration wanted to broaden the foreign policy strategy, the playbook would likely include a mix of maritime, financial, legal, and continued military posturing short of a hot war while steadily ratcheting up pressure on the Maduro regime.
. . .
President Trump’s gunboat diplomacy in the Caribbean, off Venezuela’s coast, has the effect of a maritime blockade, disrupting oil flows to Cuba and to global markets via shadow-fleet tankers. The Trump administration calculates that choking off this oil trade could trigger cascading economic stress, first in Cuba and then in Venezuela, ultimately accelerating the end goal of regime change in Caracas.
The latest report from Axios shows that the Trump administration’s seizure of a shadow-fleet tanker in the Caribbean is only in the early innings, with 18 sanctioned oil-laden ships currently in Venezuelan waters.
Last week, a US Special Forces unit seized the tanker Skipper, which was carrying crude contracted by Cubametales, Cuba’s state-run oil trading firm.
The tanker was part of a dark fleet that shipped crude from Venezuela to Cuba and onward to Asia.
Samir Madani, co-founder of the firm Tanker Trackers, told Axios that of the 18 sanctioned oil-laden ships off the country’s coast, eight are classified as “Very Large Crude Carriers” (VLCCs), such as Skipper, which can carry nearly 2 million barrels of Venezuelan crude. “It’s quite a buffet for the U.S. to choose from,” he said.
Given the unprecedented U.S. naval presence in the Caribbean, mainly offshore of Venezuela in international waters, the Trump administration’s theory of gunboat diplomacy centers on cutting off all support to Cuba. To do that, it follows the money, starting with oil flows via dark tanker fleets. Once those oil flows are disrupted, Venezuela falls, and then Cuba follows.
Related:
Axios quoted one Trump adviser as saying, “We have to wait for them to move. They’re sitting at the dock. Once they move, we’ll go to court, get a warrant, and then get them,” adding, “But if they make us wait too long, we might get a warrant to get them there,” in Venezuelan waters.
And gunboat diplomacy it is.
Read in its entirety at zerohedge.com.
READ NEXT: Anti-Trump Republican Shares Shocking Reelection Announcement
