The Republican primary race to succeed longtime Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky remains competitive, but former state Attorney General Daniel Cameron is emerging as the clear frontrunner, according to a new poll obtained exclusively by the Daily Caller.
Cameron leads the Republican field with 40% support among likely GOP voters, ahead of Rep. Andy Barr and businessman Nate Morris, according to a survey commissioned by Kentucky First Action, a super PAC aligned with Cameron. The poll found Cameron holding advantages among both male and female voters across all age groups.
The survey was conducted January 5–8 using text-to-web interviews of 600 likely Republican voters statewide and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Aaron Whitehead, an advisor for Kentucky First Action, said the results highlight Cameron’s strength despite heavy spending by his rivals. He argued that Cameron remains well-positioned to become Kentucky’s next U.S. senator.
The Barr campaign disputed that characterization, contending the poll instead reflects growing momentum for the congressman. Barr campaign communications director Alex Bellizzi said Cameron’s support has declined over time and pointed to Barr’s fundraising advantage and grassroots growth. Bellizzi also criticized Cameron’s past statewide loss in the 2023 gubernatorial race, warning Republicans against risking the Senate seat.
Cameron previously ran unsuccessfully against Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear in that election, despite receiving President Donald Trump’s endorsement.
Beyond ballot support, the poll also measured candidate favorability. Cameron posted a 64% favorable rating and an 18% unfavorable rating, compared with Barr’s 46% favorable and 21% unfavorable ratings. Morris trailed both with a 27% favorable rating and an 18% unfavorable rating.
The results are largely consistent with earlier internal surveys conducted in October. An internal Cameron campaign poll showed him leading with 39% support, followed by Barr at 22% and Morris at 8%. A separate Barr-commissioned poll conducted around the same time also placed Cameron first at 42%, with Barr at 25% and Morris at 10%.
Morris’ campaign has emphasized movement rather than overall standing. According to his team, Morris gained five points since October and saw his favorability rating rise by 15 points, a larger increase than either of his rivals.
Morris campaign spokesman Conor McGuinness told the Daily Caller that Morris is the only political outsider in the race and framed both Cameron and Barr as establishment-backed candidates. McGuinness said Morris is the only contender fully aligned with Trump’s “America First” agenda and predicted Republican voters would ultimately reject both Cameron and Barr.
Fundraising remains a key factor in the race. Barr currently leads the field in total cash on hand, while Morris has relied heavily on self-funding. During the fourth quarter of 2025, Morris raised at least $2 million, largely from personal contributions, while Barr raised nearly $1.4 million. Barr ended the period with more than $6.42 million in cash on hand, compared with Morris’s $1.5 million.
As of Sept. 30, campaign finance reports showed Barr holding $6.6 million in cash, Morris just over $1 million, and Cameron $629,748. Federal Election Commission filings indicate that Morris boosted his fundraising totals with personal loans totaling roughly $3 million in the third quarter and $1.4 million in the fourth quarter.
The Kentucky Republican Senate primary is scheduled for May 19, 2026, setting up a high-stakes contest to fill one of the most influential seats in the GOP conference.
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