California’s 2026 gubernatorial race is beginning to take shape, and new polling suggests Republicans are maintaining an early edge in the state’s upcoming primary.
According to a new survey from Emerson College Polling conducted Feb. 13–14 among 1,000 likely voters, Republican candidate and former Fox host Steve Hilton leads the field with 17% support. He is followed by Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell, who are tied at 14%. Former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter trails at 10%.
Under California’s primary system, the top two vote-getters in the June 2026 primary will advance to the general election regardless of party affiliation.
GOP Gains in Latest Poll
Compared to Emerson’s December survey, Hilton gained five percentage points, while Swalwell rose two points and Bianco gained one. Porter slipped by one point.
Among Democratic voters surveyed, Swalwell leads with 23%, followed by Porter at 14% and billionaire candidate Tom Steyer at 12%, with 22% undecided. Republican voters are nearly evenly split between Hilton (38%) and Bianco (37%), while 6% of Republicans back Swalwell and 11% remain undecided. Among independents, Hilton leads with 22%, followed by Bianco at 12%, while 30% are undecided.
A separate poll conducted by Tavern Research between Feb. 2–5 among 1,097 likely voters showed Bianco leading with 20%, Hilton at 12%, and Swalwell at 10%. That survey was circulated by the campaign of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra.
Democratic Vote Split
With more than ten Democrats running, the party’s vote appears divided heading into the primary. Elections analyst Paul Mitchell told KCRA3 that while unlikely, there is roughly a 12% chance two Republicans could advance to the general election if Democratic support remains fragmented.
Hilton dismissed that possibility in comments to the Daily Caller News Foundation, arguing that unless Republican voters consolidate behind a single candidate, the more probable outcome is a November contest between two Democrats.
Escalating GOP Tensions
The polling momentum has intensified friction between the leading Republican contenders. Hilton has recently sharpened his criticism of Bianco, calling on him during a January debate to exit the race over past controversy tied to his appearance at a 2020 protest.
On Wednesday, Hilton’s campaign escalated its attacks after Bianco highlighted the Tavern Research poll on social media. Hilton’s team dismissed the survey as a “fake” Democratic internal poll and accused Democrats of attempting to “boost the weaker Republican.”
“They know the BLM Bianco video will crater Republican turnout. Steve Hilton is leading in reputable independent polls, including the latest Emerson poll,” the campaign said.
Four Months to Go
With roughly four months until the jungle primary, the race remains fluid. Early polling suggests Republican candidates are competitive statewide, but the crowded Democratic field and California’s unique primary structure leave outcomes difficult to predict.
As campaigns ramp up fundraising and advertising efforts, both parties face strategic decisions: Democrats must determine whether consolidation is necessary to avoid splitting their base, while Republicans must decide whether unity behind a single contender is essential to secure a place in the general election.
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