The abrupt exit of former Rep. Eric Swalwell from California’s governor’s race is reshaping the contest — but not in the way Democrats had hoped. According to a new Emerson College poll, Republicans have retained their advantage atop the newly unsettled field.
Swalwell, once the leading Democratic contender, suspended his campaign amid multiple sexual misconduct allegations and mounting political pressure, leaving Democrats without a clear frontrunner. Billionaire environmentalist Tom Steyer is now making a strong push to fill the void, flooding the airwaves with advertisements.
The survey, conducted after Swalwell’s departure, shows that Republican candidates are leading the field. Former Fox News host Steve Hilton holds 17% support, followed by Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco at 14%, placing both ahead of the top Democratic contenders.
Democrats, meanwhile, remain fragmented:
- Tom Steyer: ~14%
- Xavier Becerra: ~10%
- Katie Porter: ~10%
No Democrat has consolidated support in the wake of Swalwell’s exit, creating an opening for Republicans to capitalize.
Risk of a ‘Top-Two’ Scenario
California’s nonpartisan “top-two” primary system — where the two highest vote-getters advance regardless of party — has raised the possibility that two Republicans could advance to the general election if Democratic voters remain split.
Political analysts say that scenario, while still uncertain, is now more plausible given the lack of a dominant Democratic candidate.
Democrats have expressed confidence that they can recover from their current predictament. However, in a governor’s race that is increasingly showing signs of unraveling, their actions appear to be compounding the problems rather than resolving them.
Democratic Scramble
Swalwell’s departure has triggered a scramble among Democratic candidates to absorb his former supporters and endorsements.
Candidates like Steyer and Porter are working to gain traction, while others — including former officials like Xavier Becerra — have seen modest polling gains as the field rebalances.
Still, party leaders face pressure to unify behind a candidate to avoid splitting the vote in a crowded primary.
Politico has more details on the behind-the-scenes pressure:
Democratic political professionals here largely insist the field will consolidate once campaigns start running more ads and voters tune in, averting a scenario where Democrats are locked out of the general election. But a dearth of star candidates and the vagaries of California’s top-two election system have pushed California Democrats into precarious new terrain.
“We know there’s this risk ahead — a 15 percent chance of calamity. It’s not a 15 percent chance of stubbing your toe, it’s a 15 percent chance of losing the governorship, losing the down-ballot races,” said Paul Mitchell, a leading Democratic data strategist in the state.
Losing the governorship would rank among the biggest upsets in modern political history. For Democrats, who have held a monopoly on statewide office for a generation and outnumber Republicans two to one, it wouldn’t just mean ceding California’s role as a national leader in progressive policymaking. The lack of a top-of-the-ticket standard bearer could also suppress turnout and cost the party House seats, squandering Democrats’ victory last year in a hard-fought gerrymandering campaign.
What Comes Next
With the primary approaching, a significant share of voters — roughly one in four — remains undecided, leaving the race highly fluid.
Whether Republicans can maintain their early advantage — or Democrats consolidate support in time — is likely to determine the direction of one of the most closely watched races in the country.
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