WASHINGTON — A sweeping new security assessment concludes that a covert Russian drone campaign exposed significant vulnerabilities at military installations across Europe, including bases associated with the U.S. nuclear deterrent, raising fresh concerns about NATO’s ability to defend critical infrastructure against low-cost aerial threats.
The report, published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, examined 144 suspected drone incidents across more than a dozen European countries between late 2024 and mid-2026. Researchers concluded the flights were consistent with a coordinated surveillance effort targeting military bases, nuclear facilities, airports, and other strategic sites.
Nuclear-Related Sites Among Targets
According to the report, drones repeatedly appeared near installations linked to NATO’s nuclear mission, including RAF Lakenheath in the United Kingdom, where the U.S. is preparing to station nuclear weapons, France’s Île Longue submarine base, and military facilities in Belgium and the Netherlands associated with U.S. nuclear sharing arrangements.
Researchers said the activity appeared designed to collect intelligence, map defenses, and test NATO response procedures rather than conduct direct attacks.
Analysts Point To Russian ‘Shadow Fleet’
The IISS report said many of the drones were likely launched from Russian-linked commercial vessels operating as part of Moscow’s so-called shadow fleet, which has also been used to circumvent Western sanctions.
Investigators found repeated correlations between suspicious ship movements and drone incursions near sensitive military installations, although direct attribution remains difficult in many cases.
The report argues the pattern closely mirrors Russia’s broader hybrid warfare strategy, which combines espionage, cyber operations, sabotage, and information campaigns below the threshold of conventional armed conflict.
NATO Responses Often Fell Short
One of the report’s most significant findings is that many of the drones were never intercepted.
In numerous cases, authorities either failed to identify the aircraft quickly enough or lacked clear legal authority and technical capability to respond effectively. Researchers concluded that NATO’s air defense systems remain optimized for missiles and conventional aircraft rather than small, commercially available drones flying at low altitude.
The report says several European governments have quietly acknowledged the shortcomings and are accelerating investments in counter-drone technology and detection systems.
Growing Concern Over Hybrid Warfare
Western intelligence agencies have increasingly warned that Russia is expanding hybrid operations against NATO members while avoiding direct military confrontation.
Officials believe drone surveillance, infrastructure sabotage, GPS interference, and cyberattacks are intended to probe alliance defenses, create uncertainty and force governments to divert military and financial resources.
The findings come as NATO members continue reassessing base security following both Russia’s growing use of drones in Ukraine and Ukraine’s successful long-range drone strikes against Russian military installations.
Pressure To Strengthen Defenses
The IISS concluded that Europe must adapt more quickly to emerging drone threats, warning that inexpensive unmanned aircraft can expose weaknesses in some of the alliance’s most heavily protected facilities.
While the report found no evidence that any nuclear weapons or facilities were compromised, researchers said the surveillance campaign demonstrated that determined adversaries can gather valuable intelligence while exploiting gaps in existing air defense networks.
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