Iran War Escalates Again. What’s At Stake?

PAUL’S DEFENSE BRIEF (PDB): U.S. launches new wave of strikes against Iran as Tehran says diplomacy has proven ‘futile.’ American and Iranian forces exchange heavy missile and drone attacks over control of Strait of Hormuz, increasing pressure on truce.

Trump failed to secure Strait of Hormuz in his Iran deal. Iran said gave it control of the waterway — and global energy supplies. Now, Iran’s military is violently asserting authority.

Trump claims Strait of Hormuz open to commercial traffic despite Iran earlier announcing closure.

Gulf companies are set to reveal the unequal toll of Iran war.

On negotiating with criminal/terrorist organizations, states, and other entities. Pending the failed cease-fire and memorandum of understanding (MOU) between U.S. and Iran, all eyes are on the ongoing, difficult negotiations mediated by Pakistan, Oman, Turkey, Qatar, and Egypt.

How Hezbollah’s risk strategy made Lebanon impossible to ignore. U.S. and Iran’s framework agreement focused on direct U.S.-Iran dimensions of the deal, including reopening of Strait of Hormuz, lifting U.S. naval blockade, and Iran’s nuclear program. Washington had spent months treating Lebanon as separate issue in negotiations.

Whichever way the war ends, Iran is losing Iraq. Splintering of Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a powerful umbrella coalition of mostly Shiite militias, is a prominent example. Iran’s allied militias are being pushed toward the margins of Iraqi politics.

FOR YOUR EYES ONLY – Here’s the latest defense news from conservative national security expert PAUL CRESPO.

THE PDB – Not the President’s Daily Briefing, but almost as good – PAUL’S DEFENSE BRIEF:

US POWER OVERSEAS

USS Abraham Lincoln has spent nearly seven months at sea, a grueling pace of operations with no clear end in sight.

Marines on Guam recently fired the service’s new Medium-Range Intercept Capability system, Corps’ first medium-range air defense system since divestment of the service’s legacy HAWK platform in 1990s.

DEFENSE POLITICS

Very sad. RIP, Patriot. Sen. Lindsey Graham, a retired Air Force colonel, has died suddenly at age 71 of a heart issue after brief and unexpected illness.

Pentagon lifts suspension of Apache pilots after videos of the helicopters flying low over beach packed with excited onlookers circulated online and reports said the pilots were being investigated.

The timidity of America’s top generals. What is the role of a general in a democracy? Many of today’s military leaders have a very particular answer: Focus on tactics, carry out orders, and otherwise shut up.

CHINA THREAT

Last week, former White House AI advisor David Sacks stopped Washington cold. “We now have a Chinese open-weight model that is as good as the currently available models from OpenAI and Anthropic.” A Chinese startup had, likely via espionage, matched two U.S. frontier labs that have spent tens of billions of dollars to stay ahead.

Cutting China reliance would cost the west $23 trillion. Study highlights challenge facing U.S. and EU as they try to reduce Beijing’s dominance over strategic supply chains.

RUSSIA THREAT/UKRAINE WAR

How Putin turned Japan into a den of spies. Operating out of Tokyo high-rise, a military intelligence unit finds the high-tech equipment that Russia needs to wage war.

Russia has told one of its spies in Europe to find out more about air defense capabilities western nations are sending to Ukraine, Italian investigators reported after breaking up espionage ring in Rome.

President Trump’s pledge to give Ukraine license to build its own Patriot interceptors would grant manufacturing right U.S. currently extends to only handful of allies, though it could be years before a homegrown iteration defends a Ukrainian city.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Zelensky taps European allies to build Freya, a cheaper Patriot-alternative to counter Russia’s ballistic missiles.

Ukrainian military said its air defenses shot down or suppressed two missiles and 111 drones, while Russia claims its forces targeted drone production facilities in Kyiv.

The continued myth of Russia’s imminent collapse. Three years ago, in June 2023, Kremlin confronted one of most dramatic internal crises of Vladimir Putin’s quarter-century in power. Yevgeny Prigozhin, former convict turned oligarch, Wagner founder, and longtime Kremlin insider, launched an armed mutiny that stunned Russia.

Russia’s banking system – on which the state depends to support growing debt as cost of war drains state coffers – is in danger of collapse, says European intelligence report.

EUROPEAN DEFENSE

Rheinmetall and MBDA will develop high-energy laser weapon for Germany Navy, with weapon system expected to be operational in 2029.

Europe recorded 10,000 excess deaths during late-June heatwave.

SPACE THREATS

Space Force has spent months building out its idea of “orbital warfare” and now it has one of its first weapons for taking out satellites.

INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

U.S. loosened export controls on United Arab Emirates, making it easier to export Nvidia AI chips. But UAE has ties with China.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – Israel’s longest serving, and perhaps most controversial leader – will face voters on October 27, 2026.

US MILITARY

Air Force’s B-21 Raider next gen stealth bomber will operate with two-pilot crew.

Pentagon published comprehensive yet practical guide to help non-experts understand drone threat as well as ways to avoid and prevent attacks.

Sailors who need shaving waivers for more than one year for ‘unmanageable permanent’ razor bumps now face involuntary separation.

New systems seen at SOF Week include one-way drones made of lightweight foam material, and a tactical camera you can throw into room for full-spectrum 360-degree view.

END of PDB

FOR MORE DETAILED, UNCENSORED, INTELLIGENCE, AND ANALYSIS FROM PAUL CRESPO, SUBSCRIBE TO HIS SUBSTACK.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.

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