SPECIAL REPORT – Since the start of Russia’s unprovoked war of conquest against Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has been making veiled and not-so-veiled threats of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine and against NATO.
While mostly seen as a coercive bluff, those threats have grown increasingly worrisome as Ukraine hammers Russian forces into retreat in the south and east. Putin’s botched ‘partial mobilization and the domestic turmoil it has provoked are adding to the pressure for drastic measures.
While his conventional forces have proven fairly inept and riddled with issues, his nuclear forces’ capabilities are far more straightforward.
So, what are Putin’s likely nuclear options?
As 1945.com reports:
In December 1999, Colonel General Vladimir Muravyev, then-Deputy Commander of Russia’s Strategic Missiles Forces stated, “…the deterrent actions of strategic forces…[involve] strikes with both conventional and nuclear warheads with the goal of de-escalating the military conflict,” and Russian forces “…should be capable of conducting ‘surgical’ strikes…using both highly accurate, super-low yield nuclear weapons, as well as conventional ones…” The Russians call this “escalate to de-escalation” a conflict. A more accurate description of it is “escalate to win.” The Russian assumption is that the West will not respond to the limited nuclear attack and give Russia what it wants. This is similar to Putin’s expectation that Ukraine would not fight and meekly surrender.
Despite the Russian doctrine’s focus on full-scale nuclear war with strategic weapons against NATO cities and major military targets, these surgical low-yield nuclear strikes are far more likely the first employment option in Ukraine.
Current best estimates show Russia likely has between two to four times as many active nuclear warheads as the U.S., most of them currently non-strategic (i.e., tactical, or low-yield nukes).
But Russia also has a significant stockpile of nuclear warheads in reserve.
19FortyFive continues:
Russian forces contain battlefield nuclear weapons, air and missile defense nuclear weapons, anti-ship and anti-submarine nuclear weapons and short-, medium- and long-range cruise, ballistic and hypersonic missiles. The very existence of these forces is clear evidence they plan on using them in theater war. These dual capable systems are routinely used in Russian exercises and in the war in Ukraine.
If Russia were to start a nuclear conflict, it would almost certainly be with low-yield nuclear weapons, where they have a massive advantage. According to then-Vice Chairman of the JCS General John Hyten, Russia had “thousands [of] low-yield … and tactical nuclear weapons that Russia is building and deploying…” By comparison, U.S. reportedly has under 25 low-yield Trident warheads and 200-230 tactical nuclear B-61s bombs and a total of 300 strategic B-61 bombs and nuclear-armed cruise missiles. Thus, Russia has a massive targeting advantage and it is growing.
Dr. Mark Schneider, a former senior U.S. State and Defense Department official, explains Russia’s likely employment of nukes:
If they do, it would almost certainly be against targets selected to have maximum military effect and low-collateral damage with very low-yield nuclear weapons. If the war were against NATO, the approach would be the same but the nuclear strikes could be against NATO Europe or the U.S. or even possibly both.
He adds:
Russian forces contain battlefield nuclear weapons, air and missile defense nuclear weapons, anti-ship and anti-submarine nuclear weapons and short-, medium- and long-range cruise, ballistic and hypersonic missiles. The very existence of these forces is clear evidence they plan on using them in theater war. These dual capable systems are routinely used in Russian exercises and in the war in Ukraine.
And then there are the Russian superweapons which pose unique threats. They also have a major psychological and deterrence effect.
One of the most fearsome is the Poseidon nuclear torpedo or sea drone carried by the massive Belgorod nuclear missile submarine, the world’s largest sub.
The nuke torpedo is reportedly the size of a school bus.
The sub and its nuclear torpedo have been called a doomsday weapon. The 600-ft. submarine was delivered to the Russian Navy in July.
Schneider notes that the Poseidon is “reported to have a 100 megaton warhead which would kill millions by blast and fallout. I believe its role is to deter a response to Russian first use of low-yield nuclear weapons.”
Two days ago, reports said that the massive nuclear-powered submarine had gone missing from its harbor in the Arctic along with its rumored “doomsday weapon.”
Fox News reported:
NATO has reportedly warned members that Russia’s Belgorod submarine no longer appeared to be operating out of its White Sea base, where it has been active since July. Officials warned that Russia may plan to test Belgorod’s “Poseidon” weapons system, a drone equipped with a nuclear bomb that Russia has claimed is capable of creating a “radioactive tsunami,” according to Italian media.
The drone can be deployed from the submarine at any time and detonated at a depth of 1 kilometer near a coastal city. Russian state media has claimed the device can create a 1,600-ft. wave that smashes into the coast and irradiates it.
However, Naval News reported today that new images show the submarine operating in the Barents Sea, north of Russia’s Kola Peninsula.
But most significantly, Naval News seems to confirm Schneider’s assessment:
…a test launch of Poseidon [is seen] as not out of the question. This could be routine, to test a new weapon system. Or it could principally be political, as a demonstration. Testing nuclear weapons, even without warheads, may be part of Russia’s chosen nuclear escalation ladder.
ALD
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.
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This might be a very warm winter, maybe a 1000 or so degrees warmer than usual.
By all means lets all (including Nato) just sit here and discuss this while he trains his dear devices on the rest of the world. You know he won’t just take Ukraine, we all go with them. He needs to know that every other nuke country (well maybe not China or N. Korea but then they’ll get it too) has Russia tactically trained in their sights and if he does push a button, his button will be pushed!
If Pootie actually wishes to avoid “protracted bloodshed and new casualties”, as he claims, he can call off his invasion of his neighbors. He has been assured that any use of nuclear weapons will not turn out well from him and his generals. Where is the vaunted U.N. we have been paying for the past 75 years. Shouldn’t they be organizing the taking of Moscow and arrest of Pootie with an international force of member states? (Yeah, I know that ain’t gonna happen).
Where is it written that we have to respond in kind? Russia has not even been exposed to our best non-nuclear stuff yet much less any speculation about nukes. It can only get ugly and uglier. They really don’t want to stir up Poland. They have the troops and equipment and training to completely change the dynamics of the Ukraine battlefield. A few F35 and F22 and F14 groups and most of the Russian logistics would disappear in a day or two. Starving troops with no ammo don’t fight much, especially in Winter. Russians instead of Germans freezing this time. As offensive as the idea of tactical nukes is, it does not remove the threat of strategic response. I doubt the Russian military will run that risk as opposed to revisiting the leadership question.
If the Russians are not careful, sending reinforcements to the front may only require a short taxi ride from downtown Moscow. The HIMARS launchers Ukraine already has only need the upgraded missliles to extend the range considerably inside Russia. This whole mess is far too easy to escalate. It needs to stop soon. Maybe one of the Mexican cartels can implement one of their “recall” petitions.
Instead of building up our defenses, the DEMs are always busy dishing out cash to the least productive members of our society. They love to buy those votes, no matter what it costs. Like using up our strategic petroleum reserves to “lower” the gas prices. That will last only until the day of the election. Then watch what happens to those prices. Disgusting.
Now we wait to see just what the unbalanced Putin will do. Is he so demented that he would actually use nukes in Ukraine, or any other country? Guess he must think that if he does go nuclear the west won’t do anything. His unhinged actions just might start WWIII.
Oh yea, Putin is building submarines while we’re building aircraft carriers that can’t really defend themselves. Submarines are OFFENSIVE ships One submarine could very likely destroy an entire carrier task group. I realize that submarines are part of a carrier task group but they’d be put on DEFENSE and submarines, at least the ones like I served in during WW2 are definitely not defense weapons. They are OFFENSIVE!
As an elderly US citizen, I don’t understand why more people aren’t respectful of Putin’s capabilities. It is foolish to believe that his physical and mental strengths are waning; unlike Biden, he is not just a figurehead, whether or not his personal strength is changing. We must not forget the mindset of the Socialist military heads of State; they don’t play by our rules, even if they seem to embrace a level of capitalism. Trump appeared to have a workable negotiating relationship with Putin, but one must never fully trust such a philosophically-driven opponent, especially when he loses respect for our leadership. The Game of Risk, over which my sons came to physical conflict years ago, is somewhat the Game of Putin: acquire more resources and power, bring other nations into subjugation, without explanation to anyone. While our limp-wristed military endangers our defensive capabilities, Putin is “coming on strong.”
Oh, my trailing clouds of glory have you heard the words? Oh, wonderful words soon illegals might have the opportunity to vote in local D.C. elections. Just think Washington D.C.next the rest of our country. This calls for a celebration tacos for everybody. Where would our country be without a man like him? Biden, he`s a real one.
Very Dr Strangelove But from the sea, Very scary
Betcha we know where the big sub is.
But Carbon emissions is the biggest threat : (
Biden is too damned arrogant to believe putin is not kidding! He “ thinks” putin is afraid of him! What an absolute idiot! He WILL bring on world war three with his stupidity! Guess that is what he is hoping for. He needs to be court martialled and removed from office, along with Harris, Piglosi, Schumer and the rest of the sewer rat horde in d.c. NOW!