Several sources within the Russian government informed Reuters on Friday that the Kremlin is open to discussing a cease-fire in Ukraine along the current frontlines. However, if Ukraine and the West refuse their terms, Vladimir Putin will continue with his aggressive war, causing growing concern among Western democracies.
This is not the first time Putin has shown interest in ending hostilities – provided he can present the peace as a victory for the Russian people. The proposal would require that Ukraine cede 18% of its prewar territory to Russia. In February of this year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and U.S. officials, with the backing of European leaders, shot down a similar proposal.
Russia has control over parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts, which are some of Ukraine's most industrialized areas that coincidentally provide its occupiers with advantageous defensible positions.
One source with knowledge of conversations at the highest levels told Reuters bluntly: “Putin can fight for as long as it takes, but Putin is also ready for a cease-fire – to freeze the war.”
Putin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov added that his boss does not want a prolonged war.
Despite heavy losses on both sides, Moscow maintains a significant quantitative advantage over Kyiv, with expanded conscription to support the meat grinders in the Donbas and Kharkiv Oblast. Due to partnerships with China and India, Russia's economy has weathered Western sanctions better than expected.
Forbes' Ty Roush breaks down what Russia's leaders could gain from a cessation of hostilities:
Three sources suggested Putin would be against further advances into Ukraine because it would require another nationwide mobilization, after a previous call-up resulted in a dip in popularity for Putin.
Zelensky has opposed Russia's terms for peace and negotiations with Putin. In 2022, Zelensky signed a decree formally declaring peace talks with Putin “impossible,” adding it was “clear and obvious” he wouldn't engage with the Russian leader because Russia's attempt to “annex Ukrainian territory will mean that there is nothing to talk about” with him. A year later, following reports European and U.S. officials spoke with Ukrainian officials about peace talks with Russia, Zelensky said “nobody puts pressure on us” for negotiating with Russia and “give something away.” Zelensky proposed a 10-point peace plan in 2022, which calls for Russia to restore Ukraine's territorial integrity—a term that is “not up for negotiations”—in addition to the withdrawal of all Russian troops, among other terms.
Calls for peace between Ukraine and Russia—which have been at war since early 2022—have accelerated in recent months. A peace summit will be hosted by Switzerland next month that Zelensky hopes Russian allies, like China, would attend, though Russian officials were not invited. Talks at the summit will likely discuss Zelensky's peace formula, the Swiss government said. About 70 countries will be included in the summit, including appearances from Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. President Joe Biden will not attend, according to Bloomberg. American and European officials said they will support Ukraine until its sovereignty is guaranteed, with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken saying earlier this month NATO would continue talks with the country to continue providing military assistance.
Observers almost unanimously agree that Ukraine's ability to end the war on favorable terms depends on sustained international support.
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