In the latest twist in the dramatic presidential race, pro-Trump pollster Scott Rasmussen has reported that Vice President Kamala Harris is now leading by 5 points nationally. This marks a significant shift from his firm’s previous survey, where former President Donald Trump held a slim lead of 1 point.
Breaking Down the Numbers
Rasmussen, a well-known figure in political polling circles, took to Twitter Friday morning to share the results of his latest national poll. He noted, “We don’t know yet if this is a temporary bounce or the first indicator of lasting change in the race… A week ago, it was a toss-up (Trump 44% Harris 43%). Stay tuned!”
While Rasmussen’s numbers undeniably favor Democrats, the tweet underscores the continuously evolving political landscape and points to the possibility of additional shifts in public opinion prior to Election Day.
What This Means for the 2024 Race
According to Rasmussen’s findings, Harris’s substantial gain over the past two weeks indicates a 6-point swing.
- Harris up 4%
- Trump down 2%
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr. remains unchanged
However, Mediaite’s Jamie Frevele pointed out that Rasmussen’s initial post did not provide complete polling data, methodology or the margin of error, leaving some room for scrutiny. Despite this, Harris’s apparent rise is noteworthy and could signal a shift in voter sentiment:
Three thousand registered voters were polled by RMG Research for the time period of July 29-31, 2024. Of those respondents, 47 percent said they were voting for Harris, 42 percent for Trump, and six percent for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Since President Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential race and endorsed Harris, a jolt of support for the new ticket sent fundraising numbers up to record levels. Harris has also closed Trump’s lead in several other polls, including in swing states.
How Does This Compare to Other Polls?
While Rasmussen’s results are making waves, the latest RealClearPolitics polling average still shows Trump with a narrow 1.2-point lead nationally. It’s important to note that RMG Research’s numbers are not yet included in this average.
State-by-State Breakdown
Let’s take a closer look at the RealClearPolitics polling average in the key battleground states:
- Arizona: Trump leads by an average of 4.2 points.
- Nevada: Trump holds a 4-point edge.
- Wisconsin: A tight race, with Trump leading by just 0.2 points.
- Michigan: Harris has taken the lead, up by 2 points.
- Pennsylvania: Trump leads by 2.7 points.
- North Carolina: Trump has a 5.5-point advantage.
- Georgia: Trump is ahead by 3.6 points.
Understanding the Potential Impact
Rasmussen’s poll suggests a potential shift in the political landscape, but the question remains: Is this a temporary fluctuation or the beginning of a more significant trend?
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I’ve always been skeptical about Rasmussen polls!!! What was the party breakdown? What were the locations of the people polled?
FAKE and PHONY POLL! Only Obvious… SHAMEFUL – such gaslighting…
Yes, many “voters” behave illogically. But there is NO basis for finding that Kamala, as the democrat presidential choice, instead of Biden, with Kamala to have taken over from a debilitated Biden shortly after the inauguration anyway, would poll so much more favorably now. Kamala has consistently polled worse than Joe, because she IS worse than Joe. She has done or said nothing that would change any thinking person’s vote since Joe’s “unforced” resignation from the nomination. Just the foolish DEI (DIE) ‘first female’ president, no matter what the actual consequences may be, thing …
did they poll just democrats in this poll or everyone? it is astounding to me that the news media has re invented giggles into being the second coming. it is unimaginable that Americans will vote for this women who can’t speak without insane giggles or words that make no sense at all. she polled lower than Joe Biden, yet is :surging” ahead in the polls? I find this hard to believe. also, she has Jamaican, Canadian, and American citizenships. according to the Constitution, she can only hold one to run for president and vp. which ones did she give up? Father was Jamaican, and their law states any child born to a Jamaican man anywhere in the world automatically gets Jamaican citizenship. she was physically born in california to an Indian woman. her mother divorced her father and moved KA MA LA and her sister to Canada, where she held citizenship. to attend schools in Canada, both KA MA LA and her sister had to get Canadian citizenship to attend schools. she graduated high school there, and moved back to California for college. she ran for president in 2020, but dropped out because she couldn’t get 1% of the vote, even from her own state, which she ruined with her d.a. actions. she rose to her position by the grace of WILLY BROWN, a strong black man in politics in Ca. she was his girlfriend, although he was married at the time. he has written a book about the issue. the Democratic Party is inserting this woman against the voting will of that party. she HAS NEVER HAD A VOTE CAST FOR HER FROM ANY VOTER IN THIS COUNTRY FOR EITHER PRESIDENT OR Vice President.. IS THIS THE PERSON WE CAN TRUST TO KEEP THE USA OUT OF WORLD WAR 3? NOT JUST NO, BUT HELL NO. SHE IS the cause of the current mess this country is in. she cannot outrun this legacy. she is an Indian and Jamaican woman. she has NO BLACK BLOODLLINES. her grandfather had SLAVES IN JAMAICA, yet she panders to blacks as if she knows their history and shares it. there are film clips to prove this on line. America, wake the hell up. we cannot let this communist puppet run. this country. we have no chance to survive if she does. please, for the love of GOD, dont vote blue. we will become homeless, jobless, etc. she is giving money and our jobs to illegals. our social security is going to be bankrupt, as she wants to give it to illegals. she wants to cancel our private insurance, making us like CANADA. we will die waiting in line for emergency operations. our medical community is overwhelmed now. our existence depends on putting DONALD J TRUMP BACK IN OFFICE. please, vote red.
Maybe rigged