The obituaries on former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley's presidential campaign are flowing thick and fast in the wake of Donald Trump's win in the New Hampshire primary. The general verdict: Haley has no path to victory, faces embarrassment in South Carolina, and so on.
Let's be clear: Haley's campaign is limping into South Carolina. But Donald Trump isn't exactly a pillar of primary strength, either. For that reason, Haley should stay in the race and slug it out to the convention.
The reason: Trump is effectively running as an incumbent president, and de facto head of the Republican party. But for an incumbent, his victories so far – 51% in Iowa, 54% in New Hampshire – would (in any other political reality) would cause extreme doubt about Trump's national viability.
Consider this flashback from the 1992 New Hampshire primary, when incumbent George H.W. Bush defeated Pat Buchanan 58% to 40%. The New York Times called is a “jarring political message” to Bush:
The signal to Mr. Bush was unmistakable. Even though Mr. Buchanan's support represented more than 63,000 actual votes, it amounted to a roar of anger from those who voted in the Republican primary, and it showed the power of a “send a message” campaign against him in times of economic distress.
Mr. Bush now faces a galvanized Buchanan campaign in one state after another, with the battle to be joined on March 3, when the Buchanan forces hope to make another stand in Georgia. Down the road, Mr. Bush will confront a Democratic Party that has now been given a road map of his vulnerabilities.
Trump's even narrower win should have his team looking at why so many Republicans and, more crucially, independents, refuse to vote for him. But don't hold your breath waiting for it to happen.
In 1976, incumbent President Gerald Ford squeaks by challenger Ronald Reagan in the New Hampshire primary,. The two men will fight it out all the way to the convention, with Ford getting the nomination, and losing the general.
And who can forget how Lyndon Johnson's narrow win over Eugene McCarthy in the 1968 New Hampshire Democratic primary led Johnson to declare he would not seek another term?
Everyone in what passes for the Washington press corps, it seems.
But there's more than history to give Haley a reason to stay in the race: in doing so, she gives those Republicans who are ready to move on from Trump an alternative (besides staying home). And perhaps more importantly, Haley's continued candidacy gives Republicans the opportunity to stand up for the conservatism they used to embrace, and a method to normalize criticism of both Trump and Trumpism in the GOP.
These are not small considerations. They will also be deeply unpopular with the former president, his staff, camp followers, enablers, and assorted hangers-on.
So be it.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.
