The fallout from The New York Times/Siena College poll showing Donald Trump leading Joe Biden in five battleground states Biden won in 2020 has been about as expected.
Outside of Team Biden, which seems to have its head in the sand when it comes to any data showing the president's numbers trending downward, there's a lot of angst among Democrats, but not much of it on record. That is except for someone like former Obama campaign guru David Axelrod, who lowered the boom on Biden's presidential campaign:
“As I've said for like a couple years now, the issue's not — for [Biden] is not political, its actuarial. You can see that in this poll and there's just a lot of concern about the age issue, and that is something I think he needs to ponder. Just do a check and say, ‘Is this the right thing to do?'” Axelrod said.
“Is this the best path? I suspect that he will say yes, but time is fleeting here, and this is probably the last moment for him to do that check, and it's probably good if he does…”
In earlier remarks on the site formerly known as Twitter, Axlerod said:
If [Biden] continues to run, he will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. What he needs to decide is whether that is wise; whether it's in HIS best interest or the country's?
If history is much of a guide, Biden is very likely to conflate his personal interests with those of the nation. With a few notable exceptions, that's what presidential candidates do. And for the time being, there is no indication Biden is having doubts about running again.
But as this is politics, anything could happen. The Times/Siena poll contained also contained data that showed voters appear to be willing to back a generic, unnamed replacement candidate for Biden. A candidate who, the data show, would beat Trump.
Which is a thin reed upon which to hang the vast, costly bulk of a national candidacy. But deep pocketed and highly ambitious pols like California's Gavin Newsom or Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, for example, are no doubt watching Biden's movements and utterances more closely than ever.
And a word about the Republican data inside that same Times/Siena poll…while Trump appears to have an advantage over Biden, he's not the strongest candidate in the GOP field.
As the Post's Aaron Blake writes:
The poll also tested a race without Trump. The result? The same 12-point shift on the margins. The GOP's lead goes from an average of four points with Trump to an average of 16 points without him, 52-36.
That's a significant difference, and one that would have consequences down ballot, where Trump has shown – in both 2020 and again in 2022 – that he is a drag on the rest of the Republican field.
Which brings us to a possible alternative to the former president:
In Trump's case, there at least is a readily available alternative who is polling better: former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley. She outperforms Trump in the general election — not for the first time — stretching the four-point lead over Biden for Trump to eight points.
For now, however, a Haley alternative is only theoretical, and the state-level polling shows Trump's hold on the party faithful remains powerful.
It will all be put to the test when the only poll that matters gets underway with the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 15.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.
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