The GOP Primary May Not Be A Done Deal Yet

When a campaign releases internal polling data – which is typically less robust and certainly less objective than outside polling – that’s usually a sign the campaign is heading for the rocks.

But sometimes, the internal numbers largely mirror what outside data has been saying for months, and releasing it is meant as a power move to depress support, enthusiasm, and coverage of other campaigns.

It’s possible that’s what the data coming out of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign is all about. It’s a move to pop the Nikki Haley bubble and make it clear to everyone that Trump is going to be the nominee.

Possibly as early as mid-March:

The campaign’s analysis of its own internal polling mixed with public surveys puts former president Donald Trump on track to potentially win 973 delegates by Super Tuesday on March 5, and 1,478 by March 19, a senior campaign official told reporters here on Monday. It takes 1,215 delegates to claim the Republican nomination.

The anticipated delegate tally reflects rule changes that the campaign pushed through state party committees earlier this year, such as awarding all of California’s delegates to any candidate winning more than 50 percent.

All of which is timed to make Haley’s New Hampshire move look irrelevant:

Donald Trump still leads in New Hampshire, but Nikki Haley has consolidated much of the non-Trump vote and has emerged as the top alternative to him there. Among the top candidates, Haley gets the best marks on being seen as “likable” and “reasonable,” and she runs nearly even with Trump on being “prepared” — notable, considering he held the presidency. She has been running in part on electability and is now seen as the most electable of Trump’s challengers.

Haley could pick up much more if trailing candidates like former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie see the light, and drop out of the race. 

Another takeaway from Haley’s New Hampshire numbers is that she has also positioned herself as a normal, safe, sensible alternative to the profoundly troubling Trump…who just can’t seem to stop sprinkling his speeches with abhorrent imagery.

All the more reason, then for Team Trump to put on a show of data showing he’s not only got this thing in the bag, but he’s also already gaming out the Electoral College vote next November.

Again, it’s possible all Team Trump is doing is making the case that this race is over, and it’s time to look toward the general election.

It could also be closer to what history has said of campaigns making themselves look inevitable: they are scared to death that they aren’t just beatable, but currently in the process of doing so.

We’ll know which it is soon enough.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.