ANALYSIS – Serious threat or Egyptian bluff? Egypt was the first Arab country to establish peaceful relations with Israel in 1979.
Egypt and Israel had fought four major bloody wars, most recently in 1973, so it shocked the world when Anwar Sadat broke with other Arab leaders and engaged with the Israelis at Camp David.
The Camp David Accords have been one of the foundations of peace between Israel and its neighbor. They served as a model for the Abraham Accords between Israel and other Arab states in 2020 under the Trump administration.
Everything changed however, when savage Hamas terrorists invaded southern Israel on October 7 and massacred and brutalized over 1,200 Israeli civilians and soldiers, prompting a massive Israeli counterattack.
And now, with Israel vowing to send troops into Rafah, a city in southern Gaza on the border with Egypt, and the last remaining stronghold for the Hamas terrorists, the Egyptian government is threatening to void the historic agreement.
The pact has allowed over 40 years of peace between Israel and Egypt and a measure of stability in the region.
As Politico reported: “Rafah has become a refuge for Palestinians fleeing the Israeli bombardment of the Gaza Strip, with more than half of Palestinian population [1.4 million] in the Gaza Strip having fled toward the town.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says he has ordered the military to prepare a plan for the evacuation of the civilian population of Rafah ahead of an expected ground invasion.
Meanwhile, Israeli tanks and other forces have made the move toward Rafah prepping the way for an assault.
Any major military offensive into Rafah could force hundreds of thousands of Gazans to attempt to flee into Egypt.
While as recently as two weeks ago Cairo had stated that the Accords remained solid, on Tuesday, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry warned that any Israeli “military action in the present circumstances would have catastrophic repercussions that undermine peace in the region.”
Revoking or suspending the Camp David Accords over an Israeli assault there would spread further uncertainty in the volatile region.
Still, the decision belongs to Israel which must make the calculation of whether to let Hamas survive or decimate it as it deserves to be decimated.
That hasn't kept others from weighing in on Israel's plans.
Hamas, of course, reacted with fury to the planned invasion, warning that “any attack in Rafah will lead to the explosion of negotiations for a prisoner exchange.”
Many Western leaders have also decried the planned Israeli assault, warning of the harm to civilians seeking refuge in the city. EU and U.N. officials expressed concern over Rafah ground attack.
Politico added: “U.S. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres and the EU's top diplomat Josep Borrell all issued statements on Israel's plan calling it a ‘disaster' and warning of the ‘catastrophic consequences' for civilians.”
Shoukry has called for an immediate ceasefire and urged Israel not to attack Rafah, and Joe Biden has said he believes a ceasefire is imminent in anticipation of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.
However, Israel has said a temporary truce with Hamas would only delay, not prevent, a ground invasion of Rafah.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.
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