ANALYSIS – Like other countries under international sanctions (Iran) or those simply trying to hide their covert programs (China), North Korea plays the dual-use technology game – developing military technology masquerading as civilian.
In this case, it is a ballistic missile pretending to be a civilian satellite launcher. Pyongyang notified Tokyo of plans to launch a space satellite between this Wednesday and June 11.
And Japan isn't happy.
North Korea is prohibited by United Nations Security Council resolutions from conducting ballistic missile launches but claims these resolutions don't apply to civilian space programs. Hence it is calling this upcoming launch a commercial satellite deployment.
This would be the North's first space rocket launch in more than seven years, and Japan says it will shoot it down if it feels threatened in any way, regardless of the payload.
The North Korean missile could fly over the islands of Okinawa Prefecture or other parts of Japan, which the Japanese government considers a “serious provocation.”
And it may take action to protect itself.
Tokyo has added that the U.S. and South Korea back its approach.
The Japan Times reported:
“Any missile launch by North Korea, even if it is called a ‘satellite,' is a serious violation of the relevant United Nations Security Council resolutions and a serious problem for the safety of people,” Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told reporters.
Kishida said Japan had “strongly urged” North Korea to exercise restraint and refrain from carrying out the launch, adding that Tokyo was cooperating with the U.S., South Korea and other countries on the issue.
The reality is that this will be a North Korean satellite launch. But it won't be commercial or civilian.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is intent on deploying military spy satellites, in part to watch U.S. and South Korean military moves but also to compete with the South's own successful space program.
South Korea used a domestically produced rocket last Thursday to deliver a commercial satellite into orbit for the first time.
Japan Times explained:
In April, the North Korean leader said his country was aiming to develop “satellite intelligence-gathering capability” by deploying “several reconnaissance satellites on different orbits in succession” — theoretically enabling the regime to monitor military sites and potential enemy targets.
That same month, the launch of a possibly stealthy solid-fuel North Korean ICBM prompted Japan to issue a rare J-Alert evacuation warning to its northernmost island of Hokkaido.
That one was not a space launch.
Regarding this upcoming launch, the Japanese Defense Ministry further announced it had ordered the Self-Defense Forces to be prepared to shoot down any object that could threaten Japanese territory.
Japan has deployed Patriot PAC-3 surface-to-air missile launchers and ship-to-air SM-3 interceptors in southwestern Japan and the East China Sea.
SM-3-equipped Aegis destroyers can shoot down ballistic missiles outside the atmosphere, while ground-based PAC-3s can intercept missiles that evade the SM-3s at much shorter ranges.
Japan's coast guard has issued a safety warning for ships in the Yellow Sea to the west of the Korean Peninsula between May 31 and June 11 because of the possible risks from falling debris.
Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno said the launch would “threaten the peace and safety of Japan, the region, and the international community.”
Unless the North Korean missile directly threatens Japanese territory, it is unlikely that Tokyo will intercept it, but tensions are high in the region. We should always be prepared for anything.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.
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