ANALYSIS – In the never-ending world of ‘you can't make this stuff up,' a whistleblower from the Russian FSB security service claims Vladimir Putin was considering an attack on Japan in 2021, according to Newsweek.
This, due to tensions over strategic Japanese islands taken by the Soviet Union toward the end of World War II.
A peace treaty formally ending WWII has never been signed by Russia and Japan, primarily due to the disputes over these Russian-occupied islands claimed by Japan.
Still, the logic for an attack appears convoluted.
Was Putin planning to negotiate with Japan over the islands? Was he prepared to launch an attack on Japan to gain more favorable concessions?
The Newsweek story from November 24 reporting on this is a bit fuzzy.
The Russian intelligence was reportedly funneled by the FSB officer to Igor Sushko, the executive director of the Wind of Change Research Group, a Washington-based non-profit organization.
According to the story, the FSB source for this strange information is credible.
Newsweek notes that a “…letter authored by the whistleblower…has been analyzed by Christo Grozev, an expert on the FSB. He said he had shown the letter “to two actual (current or former) FSB contacts” who had “no doubt it was written by a colleague.”
And according to that source, in August 2021, Russia was “quite seriously preparing for a localized military conflict with Japan.”
The whistleblower detailed movements of electronic warfare helicopters targeting Japan and explained how Russia's propaganda machine also suddenly launched a major push to label the Japanese as “Nazis” and “fascists.”
Sound familiar?
The FSB whistleblower said that the service was tasked with launching an “information campaign against Japan in Russian society.”
“[It happened] abruptly, suddenly and almost unexpectedly,” they wrote, referring to the information warfare against Japan.
Newsweek notes that several islands of the Kuril Island chain were seized by the USSR at the end of World War II and Tokyo still claims the islands as its “Northern Territories.”
Putin may have seen that a crisis over these strategic islands was looming and wanted to preempt the situation by striking first.
Newsweek reports:
Because of their location between the large Japanese island of Hokkaido and Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula, the islands offer a number of military and political benefits.
“For Japan, there is a cornerstone of its modern geopolitics here: its status as a World War II loser still prevents the Japanese from having an official military force, a foreign intelligence service and a number of other things. For the Land of the Rising Sun, the return of the Kuril Islands would actually mean a revision [or even cancellation] of its postwar status,” they [ the FSB officer] wrote.
The Newsweek report then notes China's apprehension over Russia returning any islands to Japan:
“The Heavenly Kingdom (China) takes any attempted revisions to the postwar agreements very negatively, and a potential victory for Tokyo in the dispute over the Kurils is unacceptable to Beijing. It is so unacceptable that China would easily complicate Russia's life for making such a ‘gift.'”
A Russian conflict with Japan or territorial concessions to Japan would both be serious problems for China.
And all would be much closer to home than a war in Ukraine and risk a much broader war.
So, this strange news is still very muddled to me.
Was Russia preparing a war with Japan as a way to gain concessions from Japan and even trade the islands it currently controls for a final WWII peace treaty?
Or was Putin simply shopping for a conflict to start somewhere for some other not quite explained strategic reason?
Reporting on raw intelligence like foreign emails and reports can often be misleading, especially if taken out of context or without knowing more about their sources and background.
In this case, I believe we should dig deeper into this story to better understand if it is truly credible and what it all meant.
But one thing is certain – this story isn't that much crazier than Russia invading Ukraine. ALD
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.
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Bad move, then China gets involved BIG Time vs now
sure, let’s believe some “whistleblower from the Russian FSB security service”. they’re on the top of my list of people to believe (NOT)