ANALYSIS – “Operation Unthinkable.” According to a Kremlin insider, Russia has a plan to destroy Britain and France's nuclear capabilities preemptively in just one day if the war in Ukraine escalates.
This lofty goal would be no easy feat since much of these two NATO countries' nuclear deterrence is aboard SSBNs (nuclear powered submarines carrying atomic missiles). But considering Moscow's massive nuclear forces, and other military capabilities, it is not “unthinkable.”
And that's why Dr. Yuri Baranchik, a well-known propagandist with the pro-Putin Moscow RUSSTRAT Institute, is warning the West of Putin's plans for attacking Europe's only strategic nukes.
The Russian plan, he says, is designed to “pull out the nuclear teeth of Britain and France.”
Great Britain and France are the only two European nations with nuclear weapons, with the former possessing an estimated 225 nukes and the latter a force of at least 290. (RELATED: Russia And Belarus Holding Tactical Nuke Drills On NATO's Border)
The Sun reports that Baranchik said Russian forces would “eliminate the nuclear potentials of Britain and France.” It added him saying that: “This would weaken Europe significantly within just 24 hours of a nuclear WW3 – targeting Britain and France‘s nuke submarines and warheads.”
He added on Telegram: “We deprive them of their status as nuclear powers and radically change the entire security system in Europe.”
Since April 1969, the U.K.'s Royal Navy has maintained a “continuous at sea deterrence” (CASD), with at least one, if not two, nuclear-armed missile submarine (Vanguard class) patrolling the seas hopefully undetected at all times, ready to respond with dozens of undersea launched missiles.
It has four nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines – HMS Vanguard, Vengeance, Victorious and Vigilant.
They are all based at Faslane Royal Navy base about 25 miles from Glasgow. The nuclear warheads are stored at the nearby Coulport armaments depot on Loch Long.
By the 2030s the U.K. plans to replace the existing Vanguard Class submarines with four new massive Dreadnought Class submarines, but that is still years off. (RELATED: Taiwan Plans To Sink China's Navy With New Attack Submarines)
France's “Force de dissuasion” (“Deterrence Force”) possesses six nuclear submarines – including the 325-foot “Suffren.” It was known as the “Force de frappe” (“Strike Force”) prior to 1961.
France also has an air-deliverable tactical nuclear capability, which adds complexity to Putin's plan, but Baranchik said it would be “more complicated” but “still solvable.”
The Kremlin crony suggested Russian forces could target these few submarines in port, or as they exit for patrol, saying Moscow has people “professionally prepared” to take them out.
The Sun notes that according to Baranchik:
After Russia carries out Operation Unthinkable, Baranchik warns that Putin would issue an ultimatum to the US, Nato and the EU.
This would urge then to stop all support for Ukraine within a day – or face the wrath of Russia's own tactical nuclear weapons.
He said: “After the successful implementation of Operation Unthinkable, we immediately issue an ultimatum to the United States, NATO and the European Union to cease within 24 hours military and financial support for Kyiv.
“Otherwise, after 24 hours, we will use tactical nuclear weapons against any objects in Europe.”
The Russian plan seems to avoid mentioning that today, under a nuclear sharing agreement, U.S. tactical nuclear weapons are housed at six bases in five NATO member countries, Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey.
Poland is considering doing the same, and reports have suggested they may be returning to the U.K. as well. (RELATED: Former UK Prime Minister Endorses Republican Victory In 2024)
So, whether Moscow could get around all these factors and actually achieve these stated goals is questionable.
Meanwhile, increasing concerns that Putin may be more serious than critics believe, the Kremlin is currently building loads of nuclear shelters for Russia's major cities.
The $420,000-each KUB-M “mobile modular shelters” are designed to protect its occupants for 48 hours from shock waves and intense radiation caused by a nuke detonation but also protects “from radioactive contamination.”
This is why Washington, London and Paris are all (hopefully) planning all possible nuke scenarios.
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