Retired US General Says Putin Will Use Nukes In Ukraine

ANALYSIS – Since the beginning of Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine, experts and analysts have warned about the danger of escalation and Putin resorting to using nukes.

Putin has reinforced this concern by repeatedly warning of his own red lines and threats to use nuclear weapons.

But with every threat he made and every one of his red lines crossed without a major response from Moscow, some have begun doubting the danger. Many believe Putin is all bluffed out.

I certainly have fallen prey to that complacency at times.

And in the meantime, Ukraine keeps stepping up its own escalation against Russia with cross-border attacks, drone strikes on Moscow, and Russian partisans conducting sabotage and attacks inside Russia.

But this is only making the nuclear threat more real.

A superbly qualified military expert warns that it's not a question of if Putin will use nuclear weapons; it's just a matter of when.

Retired Army Brigadier General Kevin Ryan served as U.S. defense attaché to Moscow and as deputy director for strategy, plans and policy on the Army staff. 

He might know a thing or two about Russia's military and Putin.

He argues in a substantive piece on unherd.com that:

Russian military commanders appear to have exhausted their ability to effectively respond to Ukrainian escalation. It is becoming clear, in my view, that the only way Russia can meet escalation with escalation is by introducing nuclear weapons.

He adds: “a single nuclear strike in Ukraine could thwart a Ukrainian counterattack with little loss of Russian lives.”

And Russia has plenty of non-strategic nuclear means to launch a limited strike.

Ryan, now a senior fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, says that our national security and intelligence leaders have it wrong.

Both the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) – Avril Haines, and the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) – Lieutenant General Scott Berrier, have acknowledged the Russian nuclear risk.

But both have also said the Russian use of nukes is “unlikely” and “highly unlikely.”

Ryan disagrees and says “the nuclear genie is out of the bottle,” noting:

And yet, there is strong evidence that Putin has resolved to use a tactical nuclear weapon in his war in Ukraine. In recent speeches and interviews, he has argued that Russia faces an existential threat — a situation, under Russian policy, that warrants the use of nuclear weapons. He has also reshuffled his military leadership, so that the three generals responsible for the employment of tactical nuclear weapons now command his “special military operation” in Ukraine.

Moreover, while Nato has made it clear that it will not sanction the use of its members' nuclear weapons to defend Ukraine, Putin already has tactical reasons to deploy them: to save Russian soldiers' lives, to shorten the war, to destroy Ukrainian forces. He also has strategic reasons: to rejuvenate the deterrent value of his nuclear arsenal and to prove that he is not a bluffer. We must therefore assume he is ready to use them, most likely in response to his faltering military's inability to sufficiently escalate by conventional means. In other words, the nuclear genie is out of the bottle.

Ryan explains that Putin has already taken several public steps to demonstrate that he is not bluffing about using nukes. In February, he “suspended” Russia's participation in New Start, the strategic nuclear arms treaty. 

This ended joint inspections of American and Russian nuclear weapons sites.

In March, Putin announced that he would station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, and Russia would begin training Belarusian forces on how to use them.

Russia already has nuclear-capable Iskander missile systems and aircraft in Belarus, so the warning time for their use will be greatly reduced.

Most importantly, Ryan argues, “for Putin, whose regime is vulnerable, to threaten a tactical nuclear attack without following through now carries perhaps as much risk as striking.”

This is why the Kremlin has steadily prepared the Russian people with reasons why he should use nukes.

Among those reasons is making it clear to the Russian people that Moscow's red lines for the use of nuclear weapons have all been crossed since the invasion. Putin is also ramping up claims that the very survival of Russia is at stake.

As part of the fear-mongering, Moscow has alleged that Ukrainian drones have struck strategic nuclear bomber bases inside Russia and that Ukraine and the U.S. were behind drones launched to assassinate Putin. 

Real or fabricated, these claims are being used to establish the pretext for using nuclear weapons.

Ryan concludes:

But what will trigger Putin's decision to launch? Most likely it will be the inability of the Russian military to meet his demands by conventional means. If a Ukrainian offensive threatens, for example, the loss of Crimea, Putin would seek an escalation of the fighting to prevent that loss. If the conventional forces could not successfully respond, a nuclear strike against the Ukrainian forces would be deployed. 

Considering how the war seems to be progressing, this scenario appears increasingly likely.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.

READ NEXT: Republican Governor Makes Decision On 2024 White House Run