Sending US F-16s and Other Advanced Jet Fighters to Ukraine: Good Idea or More of the Same?

ANALYSIS – Following the decision to send U.S. M1A2 Abrams and German Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, the embattled nation is now asking allied nations to create a “fighter jet coalition” to bolster their air combat capabilities.

This effort would potentially provide Ukraine with U.S. F-16s and F-35s, Eurofighters, Tornados, French Rafales and Swedish Gripen jets.

Reuters reported that a Ukrainian air force spokesman said while all these top-tier aircraft would be welcome, F-16s may be the best multirole fighter option to replace the country's current fleet of Soviet-era warplanes.

After committing to send 14 Leopard 2s and allowing other NATO members to send their own German-made Leopards, Chancellor Olaf Scholz has for now ruled out sending fighter jets to Ukraine.

The U.K. has thus far not been forthcoming on this issue.

And while France has expressed a willingness to send combat aircraft, as have the Baltic nations and Poland, Joe Biden has not shown similar willingness.

The U.S. earlier said it would discuss the idea of supplying jets “very carefully” with Kyiv.

However, Monday, when a reporter asked Biden outside the White House if he would send F-16s to Ukraine, the often muddled POTUS replied with a terse – “No.”

As the Washington Post (WP) noted though, Biden's ‘no' on F-16s for Ukraine has been met with skepticism in the Pentagon. Team Biden has exhibited a pattern of rejecting similar pleas from Kyiv only to relent later.

WP reported:

One senior defense official, who… spoke on the condition of anonymity… said that while the Pentagon's calculus was unlikely to shift soon, there remains a possibility that the discussion could be “M1-ed,” a reference to Biden's recent commitment of M1 Abrams tanks after administration officials suggested for months that the sophisticated arms would be too complex for Ukraine to maintain.

Another senior defense official acknowledged that there is growing frustration in the Pentagon among those who want to do more to help Ukraine but find their views stymied by others who favor a more cautious approach. This official said that while Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and some of his senior staff were reluctant to approve the Abrams tanks and, weeks before that, the advanced Patriot missile system, Biden eventually did so.

Ukraine's request for fighter jets dates to the start of the war, nearly one year ago, when it had a few dozen Soviet-designed MiG-29 fighters and a smaller number of Russian-built Su-24, Su-25 and Su-27 jets.

Russia methodically targeted Ukrainian air bases and air defense systems in the opening stage of the conflict, but Ukraine has been effectively relocating its warplanes and concealing its air defense assets.

Still, Ukrainian pilots have flown their combat jets sparingly in the face of a complex and deadly array of Russian surface-to-air missiles, jet fighters and other systems. But Ukrainian aircraft have received some significant Western upgrades.

And as noted above, the country has steadily improved its air defense, recently receiving a small batch of much-wanted Patriot air defense systems from the United States, after another Biden flip-flop.

So, after suffering heavy losses early during the conflict, the Russian air force has avoided venturing deep into Ukraine's airspace and mostly focused on close support missions along the frontline.

Bottom line – despite having one of the world's most advanced air forces, Russia has so far failed to achieve air superiority over the much smaller and less well-equipped Ukrainian Air Force.

But Ukraine has not been able to achieve much either. An aerial stalemate of sorts has ensued.

And we come back to the Ukrainian request for advanced NATO jets. Will they make a big difference?

Probably.

The WP writes:

An assessment of the air war over Ukraine by the Royal United Services Institute in London found that Russian pilots have remained “highly effective and lethal” against their Ukrainian counterparts, thanks to long-range missiles on their aircraft and superior technology overall. Ukrainian air defenses, infused with newer systems from the West, also have improved, prompting the Russian air force to keep its distance from the battlefield, the assessment found. It suggested that even a small number of Western fighter jets could have a significant deterrent effect, even while facing Russian air defenses.

Now, let's just wait and see how long it takes Joe to change his mind.

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