A new poll from The Hill/Emerson College reveals a mixed landscape for Donald Trump and Joe Biden following Trump's conviction on 34 felony counts. However, Trump holds the lead in most battleground states, which is crucial since the presidential race hinges on these key states rather than the national vote.
Minnesota stands out on the path to 270 electoral votes, a state the Trump campaign hopes to flip. Despite Biden's 7.2-point win in Minnesota in 2020, the latest poll from The Hill/Emerson shows Trump leading by 1 point in a five-way race against Robert Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein and Cornell West. In a direct matchup, Trump and Biden are tied. (RELATED: Trump Surges Ahead In Iowa: New Poll Shows Historic Lead Over Biden)
Aside from Minnesota, which hasn't favored a Republican nominee since 1972, Trump leads in these battlegrounds:
- Arizona: Trump leads Biden by 4 points, 47% to 43%.
- Georgia: Trump leads Biden by 4 points, 45% to 41%.
- Nevada: Trump leads Biden by 3 points, 46% to 43%.
- Pennsylvania: Trump leads Biden by 2 points, 47% to 45%.
- Wisconsin: Trump leads Biden by 3 points, 47% to 44%.
The Hill has more on one of the first post-conviction nationwide surveys:
“In our first polling in several key swing states since Trump's conviction last month, there has been little movement, with support for both Trump and Biden staying largely consistent since November,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. The results notably fall within the polls' margin of error.
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A plurality of voters in all seven swing states surveyed said Trump's conviction has no impact on their votes.
At the same time, a majority of voters in each state said the recent conviction of Biden's son Hunter Biden will also have no impact on their vote.
The president isn't implicated in that case, which marked the first trial of a sitting commander in chief's child, but some Democrats are reportedly worried that the matter could take a toll on Biden and prove a distraction along the campaign trail.
In contrast, a Fox News poll released on Wednesday shows Biden leading Trump nationally for the first time in months. Biden enjoys a 2-point edge in the poll, with 50% of respondents supporting Biden and 48% supporting Trump. This marks a 3-point increase for Biden from last month's Fox News survey, where Trump led by one point.
“FoxNews Polls are always the worst for me. They have been from the beginning, and always will be!” Trump responded on Truth Social.
Wednesday's survey also showed Biden's first 50% support in this election cycle and his first lead over Trump in a Fox poll since October 2023. Including third-party candidates, Biden leads Trump by one point, 43% to 42%. Third party candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West garnered 10% and 2% support, respectively, while Jill Stein received 2%.
In a May poll, Trump led Biden by three points.
The Fox poll indicated a nine-point shift in favor of Biden among independents in its latest survey, whereas The Hill reported that a majority of independents supported Trump in all seven states.
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