Happy National Ice Cream Day: Biden Steps Aside

President Joe Biden announced yesterday that he is stepping aside as the Democrat Party's presidential nominee.

Happy National Ice Cream Day

Bucky Lawson

The announcement came amid mounting pressure from high-profile Democrats after the president's disastrous June 28 debate performance against Republican nominee Donald Trump. Rumors of Biden's withdrawal have swirled for days, with such party luminaries as Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Adam Schiff, and others publicly calling for him to step down.

Biden had resisted the pressure for three weeks, insisting that he could beat Trump a second time. But major donors began pulling their support, threatening the Democrat war chest as Trump's donations have soared following the New York felony convictions, the debate, and finally, last week's assassination attempt and the Republican National Convention. Top Democrats reportedly produced polling numbers showing Biden's inability to win against Trump's surging campaign.

Biden wrote that serving as president “has been the honor of my life,” but that he believes “it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term.”  No sitting president has stepped aside from re-election since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968.

“I wholeheartedly support Kamala Harris and her candidacy for President of the United States in our fight for democracy in November.” Reid Hoffman

First Up: Kamala Harris

The question now turns to Biden's replacement. Kamala Harris initially has the inside track. Not only is she the sitting Vice President, but Biden publicly endorsed her, as did Bill and Hillary Clinton. The Clinton endorsement carries weight, as does that of mega-donor Reid Hoffman, who co-founded LinkedIn.

Hoffman wrote, “I wholeheartedly support Kamala Harris and her candidacy for President of the United States in our fight for democracy in November.”

Hoffman's support could signal the return of Democrat donors, an especially important development considering Elon Musk has pledged at least $45 million per month to Trump's campaign, openly inviting other billionaires to join in. Biden's withdrawal is unlikely to affect that pledge, given Harris' association with the administration and her seeming inability to cogently promote policy initiatives.

But Harris doesn't seem to command the support of every powerful Democrat. Former President Barack Obama, while praising Biden's decision, withheld his endorsement. “We will be navigating uncharted waters in the days ahead,” Obama wrote. “But I have extraordinary confidence that the leaders of our party will be able to create a process from which an outstanding nominee emerges.”

Hardly a vote of confidence. Obama is also said to have undermined Biden's campaign behind the scenes in the last few weeks, hoping for a new candidate.

Could Obama and the Clintons be squaring off over who will be the proverbial kingmaker? We should know by the Democrat National Convention in August.

“Threat to Democracy?”

The Democrats have long branded Trump as the quintessential “threat to democracy.” The charge is so ubiquitous that it now produces eye rolls among Republicans. Yet Democrats now propose to invalidate the 14 million primary votes cast for Biden earlier this year. Remember that the Democrat Party apparatus refused to allow primary challengers, giving their voters a single choice. But that choice is now gone.

There has been talk of a so-called “mini-primary,” but that seems to be a false notion, considering the enormous logistical problems it would entail. The decision will almost certainly come during the convention, ironically being held in Chicago, just as in 1968. Democrat Party rules allow delegates to “vote their conscience,” no matter who wins the primaries. The door is now wide open for them to do just that, meaning Biden's endorsement could be mere window dressing after the party's heavy hitters start wielding their influence.

Many Democrats criticized the party in 2016, after a perceived coup in which Democrat super delegates selected Hillary Clinton over a serious challenge from Senator Bernie Sanders. If Harris, or anyone else, does not win the nomination on the first ballot, these super delegates can vote beginning with the second.

How those super delegates might vote is unclear, though the Clintons, Obamas, Pelosi, and others will certainly have a say. Whether they agree or not remains to be seen. The result could shape the Democrat Party's direction for decades.

Obama seems to have the upper hand right now, keeping his options open, while the Clintons are tied, at least for now, to Harris. The eventual nominee may signal one or the other's political demise. The real “threat to democracy” looks to be the power struggle in the Democrat Party, with the people shut completely out of the process.

Contenders

The contenders for the Democrat nomination appear to be prominent governors like California's Gavin Newsom, Michigan's Gretchen Whitmer, or Pennsylvania's Josh Shapiro. All three are also mentioned as potential running mates for Harris, along with Kentucky's Andy Beshear, North Carolina's Roy Cooper, and Illinois' J.B. Pritzker.

It's difficult to envision any of those names seriously challenging Harris. Only Newsom and Whitmer have the necessary name recognition, and both are polarizing figures among the general electorate, especially Newsom. And Harris has a major advantage over them all. The Biden-Harris Campaign reportedly has anywhere from $250 to 300 million in its coffers, that only Harris can legally access. It would be difficult to leave that kind of money on the table. Only a name bigger than any of those could conceivably pull it off.

The Obama Factor

Michelle Obama is obviously that big name. Rumors regarding her potential candidacy have flown for over a year, despite her firm denials to the contrary. But if the nomination boils down to a power struggle between her husband and other top Democrats, could Michelle be enticed “to save the country” by entering the race? Such a scenario seems possible.

Michelle Obama could very well turn the entire race on its head. She would garner enormous support from the entire spectrum of Democrat voters. She would also re-energize a voter base that has grown to see Trump's election as all but inevitable in the last few weeks. Donors would pour money into her campaign, and she could conceivably get the greatest post-convention “bump” of any presidential candidate in history, especially considering the current state of the polls.

The question would then be whether Trump voters, who are rightly characterized as being willing to crawl over broken glass to cast their votes, would be able to withstand the surging enthusiasm for a third Obama Administration. The Trump attacks on the Biden/Harris record would suddenly be all but irrelevant, and the race would devolve into a popularity contest as it did in 2008. But, of course, Donald Trump is no John McCain, and generates excitement of his own.

The danger is that both sides would be so enthused by their candidates, that the losers could make 2020 look like a playground disagreement. The stakes would be unimaginably high, and the potential for post-election “disturbances” probably greater than at any time since 1860. That danger would subside if the nominee were anyone other than Michelle Obama, who, to be clear, would not be responsible for any potential unrest. It's just that the other possible candidates will not generate as much excitement among Democrat voters, while Trump is Trump, no matter who he faces. Harris, for now, enjoys the support of most Democrats. But the convention will tell the tale.

Biden Unfit?

Biden's announcement drew immediate calls by Republicans that he resign from the presidency. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) wrote on X that “If Joe Biden is not fit to run for President, he is not fit to serve as president. He must resign from office immediately.” Other prominent Republicans echoed Johnson, including Vice Presidential nominee J.D. Vance and Donald Trump himself.

Biden does not seem inclined to resign, especially given his reluctance to end his campaign. But the Republican assertions of unfitness seem founded. Biden's public appearances have gotten steadily worse, with his referring to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as “President Putin” at least week's NATO Summit and calling Harris “Vice President Trump” during a press conference. He also looked very weak boarding Air Force One after his COVID-19 diagnosis, prompting questions about who is actually running the country.

Whether Biden steps down or not, this is a clever political maneuver by Republicans. A Biden resignation would land Harris in the Oval Office, making it difficult indeed to supplant her as the nominee. And Republicans would have an actual Harris record to assail, even if it only covers a few months. And finally, Harris herself is not an accomplished speaker, and how she would handle the big spotlight is questionable at best.

The choice lies with Biden, at least for now, and it's difficult to see him willingly surrendering power. Top Democrats will certainly defend him, not only for appearance's sake, but to protect Harris and keep their options open for the convention.

Buckle Up

It's going to get worse.

Biden's decision not to seek re-election is no surprise. Such a scenario has been discussed for months, if not longer. Biden's position became all but untenable after the debate. One could argue that his stubbornness caused the Democrats more trouble, but make no mistake, the party's big hitters have planned for this and have undoubtedly formed shaky alliances among themselves.

The Democratic National Convention kicks off on August 19th. It promises to be raucous. The next few weeks will be activity-filled, with Democrat power players moving behind the scenes and Harris trying to consolidate her early advantage. We are literally witnessing history. The next month will be fraught with drama, rhetoric, and likely vitriol as both sides try to influence the outcome.

Will the Democrats implode into ugly infighting, all but ushering Trump into the White House? Or can they right the ship to make it closer than anyone expected even a few days ago? No one can say. It's tempting to say this Democrat National Convention could rival the 1860 Republican Convention for drama and consequence. The drama is almost certain. Let us hope the consequence is not. By the way, the 1860 Republican Convention was also in Chicago. Buckle up.

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