Ukraine Trading Territory As Russia Loses It In Kursk

ANALYSIS – President Volodymyr Zelensky says the audacious two-week-long assault on the Kursk region of Russia is aimed at carving out a buffer zone and wearing down Moscow's war machine, more than two years since Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

He added that Ukrainian forces are “achieving our goals” in the Kursk region.

Kyiv said it had seized more than 80 settlements over 1,150 square km in Kursk since launching a surprise strike across the border on Aug. 6, the biggest invasion of Russia since World War Two.

Moscow confirmed Ukrainian forces had damaged a third bridge after striking two others used to supply troops.

Ukrainian forces have struck and damaged a third bridge over the River Seym, near the village of Karyzh in the Kursk region of Russia. The hit could seriously complicate Russian military logistics as Moscow attempts to fend off Ukraine's incursion into the region.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported:

Ukrainian forces continued assaults throughout their salient in Kursk Oblast on August 18 and marginally advanced southeast of Sudzha.

The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast continues to force Russia to redeploy forces from elsewhere in the theater, and likely subsequent phases of fighting within Russia will require more Russian manpower and materiel commitments to the area.

Meanwhile, Russian forces are equally making gains in Ukraine's east and have claimed a string of villages in recent weeks. Local authorities in Pokrovsk have ordered families with children to urgently evacuate, as Russian forces advance towards the eastern Ukrainian city.

What does all this mean?

Ukraine is trading some territory in order to gain Russian terrain. All hopefully intended to weaken Russian forces in Ukraine, as well as to give it territory to trade with Russia in any negotiated settlement.

ISW added:

The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast continues to force Russia to redeploy forces from elsewhere in the theater, and likely subsequent phases of fighting within Russia will require more Russian manpower and materiel commitments to the area. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on August 17 that a source familiar with the Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast stated that Russian forces had redeployed “several” understrength brigades totaling 5,000 personnel from elsewhere in Ukraine to Kursk Oblast by midweek from August 6 to 13.

ISW continued:

Russian redeployments have allowed Russian forces to slow initially rapid Ukrainian gains in Kursk Oblast and start containing the extent of the Ukrainian incursion, but containment is only the first and likely least resource-intensive phase of the Russian response in Kursk Oblast.[14] Russian forces will likely launch a concerted counteroffensive effort to retake territory in Kursk Oblast that Ukrainian forces have seized, although it is too early to assess when Russian forces will stop Ukrainian advances in Kursk Oblast completely and seize the battlefield initiative to launch such an effort.[15] This likely future Russian counteroffensive effort will very likely require Russia to commit even more manpower, equipment, and materiel to Kursk Oblast.[16] 

WSJ reported that its source familiar with the Ukrainian operation stated that Ukrainian forces have up to 6,000 personnel within Kursk Oblast and that Russian forces will need substantially more personnel, possibly 20,000, to retake territory in the area.[17] The exact amount of manpower and materiel Russia will need to bring to bear in Kursk Oblast to conduct sustained counteroffensive operations that push Ukrainian forces back across the border will depend on how heavily Ukrainian forces defend occupied positions within Russia.[18]

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.

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