Virginia has long been considered a tough nut for Republicans to crack, but hold your horses – Donald Trump is far from out of the race. A fresh poll from Roanoke College on Tuesday has the political world buzzing. Despite the Democrats' successful attempt to crown Kamala Harris as their savior, and more intelligible nominee, the Commonwealth remains very much in play.
The Numbers Game
The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research (IPOR) at Roanoke College dropped a bombshell: Vice President Kamala Harris is clinging to a mere three-point lead over Trump, with 47% of Virginians supporting her compared to 44% for the former president. For those keeping score, that's within the poll's margin of error. In other words, it's anyone's game – and that's got to sting for the Democrats who thought Virginia was once again safely blue.
Harris vs. Biden: A Marginal Improvement
To be sure, Harris is doing slightly better than President Biden did in recent matchups. However, it'd be a mistake to uncork the champagne like Hillary Clinton's staffers did hours before she lost the presidency. The improvement is marginal at best. Could it be that Virginians aren't as thrilled with the Democratic Party's switcheroo as its leaders had hoped? Harry Wilson, professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College, hinted as much, emphasizing to Virginia Mercury that Harris' slim lead “is still within the margin of error.”
Nearly four in five (79%) of likely voters are very certain of their vote choice, and another 18% are somewhat certain, the poll found. More than half (60%) are very enthusiastic about voting, and 25% are somewhat enthusiastic.
The economy continues to dominate among the most important issues, being cited by 48% of respondents. Abortion (16%) and immigration (15%) were chosen more frequently than foreign affairs (6%) and crime (4%). Two-thirds (68%) of likely voters plan to vote on Election Day, while 31% say they will vote earlier.
Biden's departure from the race has also impacted the campaign and voters' perceptions. When asked in the new poll about what their voting plans had been prior to Biden's withdrawal, respondents gave Trump a six-point lead (although the candidates were tied in the May poll). Some who had planned to vote for other candidates appear to have changed their minds, and 3% said they had not planned to vote in a Biden-Trump matchup.
With 45%, likely voters generally perceive Harris to be more liberal than Biden, with only 16% thinking she is more conservative. Half of the respondents (50%) believe Trump's immediate response to the attempted assassination last month showed toughness, and nearly as many (44%) see it as an attempt to gain votes.
Trump's Broader Appeal – and Its Limits
Trump's ability to draw in low propensity voters beyond the traditional GOP base is well-documented, but it hasn't always boosted support for other Republicans down the ticket. Case in point: Retired U.S. Navy Capt. Hung Cao is trailing Democratic incumbent Tim Kaine by a comfortable 11 points in Virginia's U.S. Senate race. Trump's coattails might be strong, but they're not carrying the whole party to victory just yet.
The Deciders: Undecided and Third-Party Voters
As expected, the race will come down to a sliver of undecided and persuadable voters. The IPOR survey shows that 8% of likely Virginia voters plan to cast their ballots for someone other than Harris or Trump in a head-to-head matchup. Throw Robert Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, Chase Oliver and Jill Stein into the mix, and that number jumps to 13%. In that scenario, only 2% of voters remain undecided – so every vote counts.
The Democracy Debate
Fifty-one percent of voters see Trump as a threat to representative democracy in the United States. A slightly smaller margin (47%) believes that the Democratic Party's behind-the-scenes maneuvering to push Biden aside was also harmful.
Meanwhile, Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin (R) is enjoying a solid 54% approval rating, making him the most popular politician in the state.
If Harris thought she'd waltz through Virginia unchallenged, she might want to think again.
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