Amid rising tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, a poll released on Wednesday revealed a significant shift in Arab American political alignment. Historically a Democratic-leaning demographic, Arab Americans are now showing increased support for former President Donald Trump, signaling a potential upset in the 2024 presidential election.
For the first time in over two decades, a Republican nominee for president could win the Arab American vote. According to a poll commissioned by the Arab American Institute and reported by The Hill, 46% of Arab Americans say they would support former President Donald Trump, while 42% back Vice President Kamala Harris:
Normally, Democrats have a 2-to-1 advantage among Arab Americans in elections. Wednesday’s poll found Harris is running 18 points behind the Arab American support for President Biden in the 2020 election, when 6 in 10 Arab Americans voted for the Democrat. Trump’s lead over Harris, however, are within the margin of error of the poll, which is 4.5 points.
“In our thirty years of polling Arab American voters, we have not witnessed anything like the role that the war on Gaza is having on voter behavior,” the poll document reads. “With little over one month remaining before the election, Arab Americans and, as our polls of US voters have shown, those who share their concerns (young and non-white voters) will be watching to see if their deeply felt concerns with Gaza and now Lebanon will be recognized and respected with a promise for change.”
In the immediate aftermath of the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks, Arab American support for Democrats cratered, falling from 40 percent identifying as Democrats in April 2023 to 23 percent saying they were Democrats last October. Less than 1 in 5 Arab Americans polled said they would vote for Biden last October.
Since then, the party has somewhat regained its footing, with 38 percent of Arab Americans now identifying as Democrats and 42 percent saying they would vote for Harris.
The predominant factor influencing these numbers is the ongoing conflict in Gaza. A striking 81% of respondents indicated that the situation in Gaza plays a critical role in shaping their vote. Trump has notably supported Israel’s efforts, though he has called on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to bring an end to the bloodshed as soon as possible.
While Harris’ current numbers reflect an improvement from where President Joe Biden stood among Arab American voters, they remain significantly below Biden’s performance in the 2020 election. This puts her at risk of losing this crucial demographic altogether.
However, the poll also suggests that Harris could gain substantial ground if she were to adopt a more forceful stance on the Gaza conflict. If she or Trump were to advocate for an immediate ceasefire, unimpeded humanitarian aid to Palestinians and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, their support among Arab Americans could surge to around 60%. This shift would not only attract one-third of their opponent’s current supporters but would also diminish votes for third-party candidates.
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