President Donald Trump’s recent statements and actions against Ukraine that appear to favor Putin’s Russia are raising concerns even among conservative Republicans. I will admit I am a bit concerned about it myself.
Bashing your (erstwhile?) ally using enemy propaganda and icing him out of key diplomatic meetings as you prepare to negotiate war and peace with a major nuclear armed rival isn’t usually the best strategy.
But I will leave that concern for later. Now I would like to focus on the potential strategic upside to Trump’s apparent attempt at rapprochement with Moscow. Specifically with regard to China.
Despite all the angst over potential Russian threats to NATO, communist China remains the biggest geopolitical and military menace facing America today and into the future.
Pushing Russia closer to China has been one of the worst side effects of recent U.S. and Western policies toward Moscow.
As Newsweek reports:
The quasi-alliance constructed in over a decade by the personal connections between President Vladimir Putin and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping is borne out by record-high trade volumes and mutual political support. China has refused to label Russia’s invasion as such and has censored anti-war sentiment at home.
Yet there are signs that not all in Russia are completely comfortable with what may be becoming an imbalanced relationship.
Xi may be frustrating Putin by holding out for more favorable terms on a major natural gas pipeline to China, a project that could secure Russian energy exports for decades. Meanwhile, in China’s increasingly insular online environment, Chinese nationalists are openly complaining about the 19th century loss of territory in what is now Russia’s Far East.
“I do believe there is a possibility of the United States peeling Moscow away from Beijing. Moscow and Washington share a distrust of Beijing. Beijing has territorial designs on Russia—the United States does not,” said Isaac Stone Fish, CEO of Strategy Risks, a China-focused analytics firm in New York.
This possibility has only increased with the speed and aggressiveness of Trump’s recent moves. Just weeks ago, China appeared set for a key role in Trump’s Ukraine peace efforts.
But as CNN notes: “Now, Beijing finds itself neither involved in the negotiations as a Russian ally nor a voice of global gravitas – so far, at least, left on the outside of the swift developments that observers say have surprised Chinese officials – and sent them scrambling to find an upside.”
Despite public praise for Trump’s efforts to end the Ukraine war, China’s leader Xi Jinping is likely starting to sweat.
CNN added: “Top US diplomat Marco Rubio named the possibility for future ‘geopolitical and economic cooperation’ between Washington and Moscow as among four key points discussed in Riyadh.
“Days earlier,” CNN noted, “the Trump administration’s Russia-Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg told a panel discussion in Munich that the US hoped ‘to force’ Putin into actions he was ‘uncomfortable with,’ which could include disrupting Russia’s alliances with Iran, North Korea – and China.”
Some compare Trump’s current efforts with the diplomatic coup engineered by President Richard Nixon and his adviser Henry Kissinger, who established relations with Beijing to swing the Cold War balance of power against the Soviet Union and in the U.S.’ favor.
Some are calling Trump’s move a possible “reverse Nixon.” And it could be a brilliant strategy.
As CNN explains:
Though that history is unlikely to be repeated, observers say even a hint of a new shift in allegiances is a boon for Washington’s goals.
“Even if it’s just 30% of a ‘reverse Nixon’ … that’s going to sow the seeds of doubt,” said Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center think tank in Washington.
“That’s going to make Xi Jinping question the strategic alignment that (he spent) the past 12 years to build with Russia – ‘maybe it’s not that dependable, maybe it’s not so solid.’”
If a day comes that China decides to invade Taiwan then, “the Chinese will have to look at their back and wonder – what is Russia going to do?” she added, referring to the self-ruling democratic island Beijing claims. “And for the United States, that’s deterrence.”
Maybe this is all wishful thinking, and Team Trump is simply rolling over for Putin. But maybe there’s a lot more to it than that.
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I pray TRUMP can Re-stablize RUSSIA, CHINA and dump Ukraine and their Paraiste