A major restructuring is underway at the Pentagon, after Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth moved to shut down the Office of Net Assessment (ONA)—a little-known but powerful defense think tank that has played a pivotal role in shaping U.S. military strategy for over five decades.
What Was ONA, and Why Does It Matter?
Created in 1973 under President Richard Nixon, the ONA was tasked with providing top military officials with long-term strategic insights to prepare for conflicts with major adversaries. Most recently, its focus was on countering China, with experts warning that a potential military showdown could erupt by 2027.
According to The New York Times, this little-known entity has exerted an outsized influence on generations of senior Defense Department leaders:
In a short note posted on Thursday, the Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell suggested that the office would be restructured and then reopened with a new focus on the country’s most “pressing national security challenges.” He did not explain how the office’s new mission would differ from its previous approach.
For most of its history, the Office of Net Assessment was run by Andy Marshall, its founder, who pioneered an innovative and somewhat mysterious approach to comparing the strength of U.S. forces with that of its potential enemies. The office also developed inventive ways of fighting adversaries. Jim Baker, a retired Air Force colonel, succeeded Mr. Marshall in 2015.
Among its most consequential contributions was the Air-Sea Battle concept—an ambitious strategy envisioning a devastating first strike by U.S. stealth bombers and submarines to cripple China’s surveillance and defense networks, followed by a full-scale naval and Marine assault.
A Strategic Overhaul or a Costly Mistake?
The closure of the ONA—despite its modest $10-20 million annual budget—has sparked heated debate in defense circles. While administration officials suggest the office could be restructured and rebranded to tackle today’s “most pressing national security challenges,” critics see it as an ill-advised move at a dangerous time.
Rush Doshi, former director of the CFR China Strategy Initiative, slammed the decision, calling it an “enormous mistake.”
“This was a little-known but enormously consequential fifty-year-old institution that actually thought long-term. It helped us win the Cold War, grasped the China challenge early, and figured out revolutions in warfare.”
Meanwhile, China appears to be watching closely. General Chen Zhou of the People’s Liberation Army openly praised ONA’s influence, revealing that the Chinese military has long studied the works of Marshall, known as the “Yoda” of U.S. military strategy.
Timing Raises Alarms as China Prepares for Taiwan
Hegseth’s decision comes amid a surge in Chinese military activity, raising fresh concerns about Taiwan’s future. New images posted on Weibo show China’s “Mulberry Harbors”—massive barges capable of transporting scores of tanks—during an amphibious landing drill in the South China Sea, which experts believe could be a test run for a full-scale Taiwan invasion.
BREAKING:
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) March 13, 2025
China unveiled its new huge ”invasion barges” during an amphibious landing exercise near Zhanjiang.
The barges will make it possible for China to move large amounts of military equipment to a shore without docking facilities.
Ships would dock with barges, unload… pic.twitter.com/2eAXTW4Zrp
As China builds up its war capabilities, the question remains: Is dismantling the Pentagon’s long-term strategic planning arm the right move—or a dangerous gamble?
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If I could recognize the Chinese threat in the late sixties/early seventies, it must have existed before then. Yet our government has done little to respond and even extended “favored trading country” investments and low import tariffs. Over the past 50+ years, the politicians and bureaucrats have turned a blind toward the theft of intellectual resources and an ever increasing trade deficit. Today, China holds a commanding percentage of all manufactured stock on retail shelves in the United States. And, thanks to the theft of intellectual resources along with applied reverse engineering of many US patented products being manufactured in China by profiteering Wall Street investors China has all but decimated the once great manufacturing industry in the United States. Freedom from US EPA and labor regulations has also contributed to China’s industrial growth and corresponding military strength over those 50+ years. So tell me just what did Nixon’s polluted military think tank (ONA) generate but financial waste.
This is no different than it always was. You get the naval gunfire and then the planes and then the Marines. I am a Marine veteran, so this is nothing new. They are just renaming it; I don’t think it will be all that easy. China is not stupid. Their spies are everywhere. If China thought they could beat us they would have attacked This is the same reason they are not trying to take Taiwan I am here to tell you that China distorts everything to make the world outside will think that they have all of these things but in reality they don’t The major things Chia has is what they have stolen from us
Are these many of the same people that lost clearances, or who do they represent?