The Great China Debate: Paper Tiger Or Dangerous Dragon?

PAUL’S DEFENSE BRIEF (PDB) – We should assume China is powerful even as we acknowledge its weaknesses. China against China. Thirteen years after Xi Jinping ascended to the top of China’s leadership hierarchy, observers in Washington remain deeply confused about how to assess his rule.

To some, Xi is the second coming of Mao, having accumulated near-total power and bent the state to his will; to others, Xi’s power is so tenuous that he is perpetually at risk of disgruntled elites ousting him in a coup.

Xi’s China is either a formidable competitor with the intent, resources, and technological prowess to surpass the U.S. or an economic basket case on the verge of implosion. Depending on whom one asks, China’s growth model is either dynamic or moribund, relentlessly innovative or hopelessly stuck in the past.

Attempts to analyze Xi’s project have become even more convoluted in the wake of China’s slow recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.

When Xi suddenly ended China’s draconian pandemic controls and reopened the country in late 2022, some expected a massive rebound, but when the economy sputtered, some in Washington concluded instead that China had peaked, its governance structure had failed, and that it would start to decline relative to the U.S.

This analytic confusion has shaped U.S. policy toward China.

Even as a growing number of officials in Washington employ Cold War-style rhetoric when discussing China, yet demonstrate little appetite to take on the difficult and expensive tasks, such as refurbishing the defense industrial base and shoring up key supply chains, that would help the U.S. outcompete China.

If this dynamic continues, the U.S. will be left pursuing a “Reverse Roosevelt” strategy: speaking loudly while carrying an ever-smaller stick.

FOR YOUR EYES ONLY – Here’s a roundup of today’s other top defense news from conservative national security expert PAUL CRESPO.

Not the President’s Daily Brief, but almost as good – PAUL’S DEFENSE BRIEFING – the PDB:    

NATIONAL SECURITY

Greenland radars are vulnerable to hypersonic missiles. Since the early days of the Cold War, the early warning radars on Greenland have been a linchpin for defending North America against nuclear attack by intercontinental ballistic missiles.

Pentagon frets over ‘A House of Dynamite’ nuclear doomsday film. The plot of “A House of Dynamite,” the new thriller, hinges on — spoiler alert — U.S. missile defenses failing to knock down a nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missile headed for Chicago.

HOMELAND SECURITY

Shots fired after truck rams into California Coast Guard base in the San Francisco Bay Area — the site of earlier protests against federal immigration agents. The driver was shot at by law enforcement officers and wounded.

Trump’s Guard deployments in D.C. and Portland are focus of court hearings.

DEFENSE POLITICS

Pentagon accepts $130 million donation to pay troops during shutdown.

A post-shutdown priority: Build more ships. Time isn’t our ally, write Sens. Mark Kelly and Todd Young.

US POWER OVERSEAS

U.S. to deploy new USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier to the waters off South America, in the latest escalation and buildup of military forces in the region.

As U.S. conducts air strikes on Venezuelan boats carrying drugs and cartel members, Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham says that land strikes in Venezuela are a “real possibility.”

U.S. warship docked in Trinidad and Tobago as the Trump administration boosts military pressure on neighboring Venezuela and its illegitimate leader, Nicolás Maduro.

Marines emphasize logistics and firepower in Pacific. Marine Corps is working on building out its logistics capabilities, aiming to better resupply and sustain forces in the event of conflict.

RUSSIA THREAT

Burevestnik: US intelligence and Russia’s ‘unique’ cruise missile.

Vladimir Putin hailed the test of a new Russian nuclear-powered cruise missile that his military said was capable of traveling for at least 8,700 miles.

Amid Russian aggression, Croatia’s parliament voted to reintroduce compulsory military service in the European Union and NATO member country.

Lithuanian Army tested heavy machine guns and Swedish-designed surface-to-air missiles against high-speed drones, exploring the potential of firearms as drone countermeasures of last resort.

Europe needs to urgently step up its military capability in areas spanning electronic warfare capacity to low-orbiting satellites and nuclear deterrence.

MIDDLE EAST THREATS

Israeli military says it conducted a ‘targeted strike’ in central Gaza against a member of Islamic Jihad.

Hamas says it has expanded its search for bodies of Israeli hostages in the Gaza Strip.

No one knows how to pull off the Gaza peace deal. The October 13 peace summit achieved, for about two hours, general agreement on a 20-point plan for Gaza.

SPACE THREATS

Japan launched the first of a new generation of cargo spacecraft, HTV-X, to the International Space Station, with potential applications beyond low Earth orbit.

INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

After Trump’s $20 million aid package, Milei’s conservative party wins Argentina midterm vote in major comeback.

Inside Canada’s new Arctic ambitions. After decades of neglect, the Far North is suddenly central to Ottawa’s vision of sovereignty and security — and Washington is paying close attention.

Singapore launches new warship armed with drones, likening it to the fictitious spaceship “Battlestar Galactica.”

Sudanese paramilitary Rapid Support Forces said it had seized the army headquarters in El Fasher, its last major obstacle to controlling the sprawling western region of Sudan.

Kurdish PKK, the armed group fighting for a Kurdish state, announces it is withdrawing fighters from Turkey to Iraq. The PKK had formally renounced its 40-year armed struggle in May.

US MILITARY

Air Force officials will inspect “100% of interior residence rooms” in unaccompanied housing facilities for service members.

Army logistics need to think like combat units to survive drones. The Ukraine war has been a drone operator’s dream and a quartermaster’s nightmare. Supply trucks and depots have been pounded by a nearly endless stream of drones and long-range munitions. Resupply of front-line units means running a gauntlet of fire.

Oops. Marines didn’t give any prior warning before firing more than two dozen artillery rounds over a freeway in a rehearsal for last weekend’s Marine Corps birthday celebration at Camp Pendleton.

KNDS, the French German maker of land armaments, considers its Caesar howitzer has “excellent chances” to win a U.S. Army artillery competition to replace the M777.

END of PDB

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.

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