Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District — which Donald Trump won by a massive 22 points — is now home to one of 2025’s tightest races. The matchup pits a Republican Army veteran against a Democrat who once admitted she hates country music. Despite the cultural and political contrast, the Dec. 2 special election has turned a reliably red district into a genuine toss-up.
A Routine Vacancy Turns Into a High-Stakes Contest
The race began after Rep. Mark Green resigned on July 20 to take a private sector job. His departure triggered a matchup between GOP nominee Matt Van Epps, a special operations helicopter pilot running squarely in the MAGA lane, and Democrat Aftyn Behn, a progressive activist dubbed the “AOC of Tennessee” who has drawn strong backing from national Democrats. Several independents also qualified for the ballot. (RELATED: Democrats Accused Of Boosting Spoiler Candidate In Tennessee’s Special Election)
Behn has framed her congressional bid as a response to what she describes as a major shift in national economic policy. Her campaign argues that the recent “Big, Beautiful Bill” created a windfall for the wealthy and represented one of the largest upward transfers of wealth in U.S. history, at a time when concerns over cost-of-living expenses and inflation remain as high as they were in 2024.
Positioning herself as both an activist and an experienced state lawmaker, Behn points to her work in the Tennessee legislature as evidence of how she would serve in Congress. In one campaign ad, she highlights her push to eliminate Tennessee’s grocery tax and pledges that, if elected, she would focus on protecting rural medical facilities, keeping nursing homes operational and accessible, and ensuring residents maintain health coverage regardless of their financial circumstances.
What was expected to be a quiet, low-drama contest has instead become a test of Republican turnout strength in a district that would normally be considered an easy GOP hold.
Polls Show a Tightening Race
An Emerson College Polling survey conducted Nov. 22–24 among 600 likely voters shows Van Epps at 48% and Behn at 46%. Another 5% remain undecided, while 2% back third-party candidates.
The poll also highlights a split in voting behavior. Early voters back Behn 56 to 42, while those planning to vote on Election Day lean toward Van Epps 51 to 39. Earlier independent polling in October showed Van Epps up by as much as 8 points, suggesting the race has tightened meaningfully in the final stretch.
“Voters under 40 are Behn’s strongest group, 64% of whom support her, while Van Epps’ vote increases with age, to 61% of those over 70,” said Emerson College Polling executive director Spencer Kimball.
“There is also a stark gender divide; men break for Van Epps by nine points, 51% to 42%, whereas women break for Behn by six, 50% to 44%,” he added. (RELATED: New Poll Claims Republicans Troubled By Trump’s Handling Of Epstein Documents. Do You Believe It?)
The New York Post has more, including the poll’s notable finding that President Trump’s approval rating is upside down in the district, thanks to a steep drop in support from independents:
“The decline is driven by independents, among whom 59% disapprove [of Trump] and just 34% approve,” Kimball said.
An upset win for Behn would trim the House Republican majority to a mere three seats and cause widespread consternation in the GOP after emphatic defeats in New Jersey and Virginia off-year elections last month.
Behn, 36, won a seat in the Tennessee House of Representatives in a 2023 special election, but has made more news for her comments from before entering public office.
On a 2020 podcast that resurfaced last week, Behn said of Nashville: “I hate the city, I hate the bachelorettes, I hate the pedal taverns, I hate country music, I hate all of the things that make Nashville apparently an ‘it’ city to the rest of the country. But I hate it.”
Behn has also drawn attention for past commentary on Tennessee and law enforcement. In a 2019 opinion piece for The Tennessean, she characterized the state as “racist,” a description that later resurfaced during her campaign. The following year, amid nationwide protests and unrest, she used her X account to call for dismantling Nashville’s police department and publicly applauded polling showing that more than half of respondents thought destroying a police station could be justified under the circumstances.
Reporter Sam Stockard of the Tennessee Lookout described the upcoming special election as a traditional clash between conservative and liberal forces, reflecting the divide between rural communities and urban voters in a district that leans strongly Republican.
The current shape of the district is the result of a 2021 redistricting effort led by the GOP-controlled legislature, which pulled the northern sections of Nashville into the 7th and effectively dismantled the former 5th District that had long been anchored in the city.
Combined with an energized Democratic base and heavy national attention, that dynamic has turned what should have been a safe Republican seat into a genuine battleground.
Why the District Is Suddenly Competitive
Special elections also depend heavily on turnout. Lower participation can compress margins, and one side’s motivation can matter as much as ideology. Democrats see an opportunity and have poured money and resources into Behn’s campaign. Republicans, including Trump, have stepped in to defend the seat and prevent an embarrassing upset. (RELATED: The Right Keeps Losing Because NGOs Hijacked ‘Democracy’)
What Could Decide the Outcome
Turnout patterns: Behn’s early-vote edge is real, and Van Epps’ Election Day advantage is just as real. Which pool is larger may determine who wins.
Undecided and third-party voters: Roughly 5-7% of voters are still up for grabs. In a close race, even a small break in one direction can change the result.
National mood: Economic concerns, voter frustration, and shifts among suburban voters continue to shape turnout and intensity. Both parties see this race as a bellwether for 2026.
The Bottom Line
In the short term at least, Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District is no longer a safe Republican seat. The gap between Van Epps and Behn has narrowed to within the margin of error, making it one of the most competitive elections of the year. If Behn can consolidate moderates, independents, and disaffected Republicans — and if GOP turnout slips even slightly — Democrats could notch an upset with implications far beyond Nashville.
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Sad to say this but our public school systems have become so bad that women under 40 are clueless no matter what state they come from. Older people can’t keep saving them – the older people will die off and a horrible future awaits America.