Democrats gain 10-15 points compared to last year’s presidential election in solid-red Tennessee…
With 95% of the vote in, Republican Matt Van Epps has secured a 52.1%-46.8% victory over progressive Democrat Aftyn Behn in Tennessee’s 7th District — closing out a far more competitive race than Republicans expected even a month ago.
I’ve seen enough: Matt Van Epps (R) defeats Aftyn Behn (D) in the #TN07 special election.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) December 3, 2025
When the dust settles, Democrats are on track to post a 10-15 point gain over last year’s presidential results in one of the nation’s reddest districts. The stakes were high enough that Speaker Mike Johnson and President Donald Trump — who phoned into a Van Epps rally the night before the election — jumped in to help close the gap.
JUST IN: Republican Matt Van Epps is expected to win Tennessee's 7th District by just 7 points, a district Trump won by 22 points in 2024.
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) December 3, 2025
Here are the shifts by county compared to the 2024 presidential election:
Davidson: 25 points to the left.
Dickson: 12 points to the left.… pic.twitter.com/WWyLHopcPn
Despite the underperformance, Republicans still have reasons to feel encouraged.
Even with a difficult midterm cycle looming, the party is eyeing several states where new district lines could still shift in its favor. If the Supreme Court hands down a favorable Voting Rights Act decision, Southern states could get the green light to redraw their districts before next November, creating new opportunities for Republicans to strengthen their position south of the Mason-Dixon line.
The special election filled the seat left open after Rep. Mark Green stepped down in July for a private sector job. The district — running from Nashville suburbs to Clarksville and won by Trump by 22 points — should have been an easy GOP hold. But Van Epps, backed heavily by Trump and national Republicans, found himself in a razor-thin fight with Behn, a far-left state lawmaker who turned her campaign into a mantra for affordability and core local services, summarized by her slogan: “Feed kids, Fix roads, and Fund hospitals.” Final polls had Van Epps up just 48%-46% as both sides scrambled for turnout, trading attacks over Behn’s old comments on Nashville culture and policing.
Ultimately, Van Epps had enough momentum to finish in the lead, overtaking Behn for good once about 60% of the vote had been tallied.
🚨MATT VAN EPPS LEADS
— Gina Milan (@ginamilan_) December 3, 2025
49.7% pic.twitter.com/QPzi4jyjAC
Appearing on Fox News earlier in the day, Rep. Tim Burchett urged conservatives to take the unusually tight contest seriously, labeling Behn a “homegrown Marxist.” Burchett blamed low Republican turnout in special elections throughout Trump’s two terms on complacency and invoked Ronald Reagan’s warning that the republic is “one generation away” from being lost. He urged voters to push back against “Marxists” like Behn, adding, “She’s not even a friendly Marxist like AOC.”
🚨BREAKING: @TimBurchett (R-TN) drops EPIC TRUTH NUKE on Conservatives in Tennessee and America.
— The Patriot Oasis™ (@ThePatriotOasis) December 2, 2025
"We need to WAKE-UP to what's going on!"
"President Reagan said it best. We're one generation from losing the republic. BROTHER, we're ONE VOTE SERIES away from LOSING the… pic.twitter.com/V0MnHUftCE
Van Epps will serve the remainder of the current term and face reelection in the 2026 general election.
Democrats ultimately faced three big problems in TN-07:
— Matthew Klein (@MattKleinOnline) December 3, 2025
1. This seat is really, really red and it’s hard to move votes in the South.
2. Republicans spent considerable money to awaken the GOP base.
3. Dems nominated a left-wing candidate with major ideological baggage.
This is a breaking news story. Please check back for updates.
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I’m pretty sure the left are cheating in every election. The left is pulling out all the stops. When the left is out of power they are besides themselves. Their whole self-worth revolves around controlling people and when they are not in power they can’t do that.
It just shows that about 40% of the voters are idiots of one kind or another.