While always considered a strong possibility, it is becoming more likely that China may attempt to quarantine or blockade Taiwan, rather than invade it outright.
Depending on the results of a coercive quarantine, an invasion could always be executed at a future date.
The increasingly large, aggressive, and intense Chinese military drills around Taiwan can and likely will provide cover for either course of action.
To emphasize this point, China just launched a massive live-fire exercise simulating the seizure and blockade of Taiwan.
Taiwan’s armed forces are on “high alert” after Chinese naval and military forces encircled the island.
Dubbed “Justice Mission 2025,” the combat drills include the army, navy, and air force.
China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) claims to have created a “shield of justice” around five major ports in these drills.
They even released a map showing the blockades — made up of PLA personnel and even rocket forces — completely surrounding Taiwan.
China’s armed forces have been able to “essentially start mounting an increased tempo of these large-scale drills that have a lot of the makings of a blockade,” Tom Shugart, a former U.S. Navy officer with the Center for a New American Security think tank, told Business Insider.
One recent report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) think tank in Washington, D.C., notes that China could initiate a full or partial “gray zone” quarantine of Taiwan using its coast guard and other law enforcement agencies, rather than its armed forces, to restrict access to the island’s ports. (RELATED: China Fears A Real War Over Taiwan)
While this would not completely seal off the island, it would “assert China’s civil and legal control over Taiwan by setting the terms for traffic in and out of the island,” the report says. All without employing military force or being seen as an act of war.
The China Power Project maps out scenarios more likely than an invasion in the near term.
As CSIS notes, a quarantine is “also more reversible and would not require closing off the Taiwan Strait.”
To create the appearance that it is only enforcing a law enforcement function over what it calls a renegade domestic province, China’s Coast Guard and China’s Maritime Safety Administration would likely lead a quarantine, patrolling the waters around the island and intercepting any vessel that might breach the quarantine’s terms.
In 2023, China launched a three-day patrol and inspection operation in the Taiwan Strait that included moves to board ships, something it would do in case of a quarantine.
Meanwhile, China’s armed forces would still remain nearby with air, naval, missile, and even amphibious forces “to intimidate Taiwan, deter outside intervention, and provide crucial intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance,” the report says. (RELATED: China Testing Ferry-Based Invasion Fleet And Assault Barges For Taiwan)
A full military blockade of Taiwan to seal it off completely from outside contact and supplies would be a far more aggressive Chinese action and would be considered an act of war, likely escalating to a major regional conflict.
A series of CSIS wargames evaluates these blockade options.
Another pair of D.C. think tanks, the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), also recently produced a study on a potential Chinese “coercion campaign” against Taiwan that would fall short of an actual invasion, blockade, or quarantine.
The ongoing Chinese military efforts around Taiwan are seen as part of this type of effort.
Last month, China began the two-day exercise “Joint Sword” around Taiwan, carrying out “joint sea-air combat readiness patrols, joint seizure of comprehensive battlefield control, and joint precision strikes on key targets,” as well as other major drills in August 2022 and April 2023.
All these reports and studies show that the U.S. must be prepared to deter or counter Chinese “gray zone” aggression against Taiwan that falls short of war and invasion, including a civil quarantine, increasing coercion campaign, or military blockade.
Meanwhile, the U.S. announced its largest-ever arms sale to Taiwan, which will aid Taiwan’s efforts to implement an asymmetric defense strategy. However, even these weapons are geared toward defending Taiwan against a Chinese direct invasion or military strikes. As ISW reports:
The sale amounts to approximately 11.1 billion US dollars and includes 82 HIMARS rocket systems, 420 M57 ATACMS missile systems, 60 M109A7 self-propelled howitzers, and an unknown number of Altius 700m and 600m unmanned loitering munitions, Javelin anti-tank missiles, and TOW anti-tank missiles….The scale of this arms sale illustrates that the United States remains committed to…providing precision munitions and unmanned systems to implement an asymmetric defense strategy. An asymmetric defense of Taiwan would involve deploying low-cost systems and precision strike capabilities to achieve mission kills on critical systems, such as PLA {Chinese military] amphibious assault craft, and deny PLA access to the Taiwanese coast.
…HIMARS and ATACMS will allow Taiwan to strike PLA positions on the mainland coast and as the PLA transits the 150-200km strait toward Taiwan. This capability could complicate PLA efforts to concentrate force on its eastern coast and in the Taiwan Strait prior to an amphibious invasion of Taiwan…The Altius loitering munitions will also enhance Taiwan’s anti-armor capabilities, with both drones boasting long ranges and large payloads that could hold PLA armor at risk before they reach Taiwan’s shores. Taken together, the procurement emphasizes precision, mobility, and unmanned systems that Taiwan seeks to leverage to offset PLA advantages in size by imposing high costs on any PLA effort to concentrate significant forces for a cross-strait invasion.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.
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That would cost them a lot of ships and sailors.
Taiwan won’t let that ever happen.