Cook Political Report Shifts 10 Biden-Won Districts Toward Republicans

With Election Day less than one week away, political pollsters and analysts are rapidly amending their projections as the GOP is poised to sweep this year’s midterms.

The latest update from the nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted 10 House districts previously won by Joe Biden toward Republicans. The latest update is the latest cautionary sign for Democrats who have seen the GOP making inroads in blue strongholds.

“The scariest Halloween reality for House Democrats is the number of seats President Biden carried comfortably in 2020 that are at genuine risk a week out,” wrote Dave Wasserman, the Cook Report’s House editor. 

“And if you’re looking for House upsets, the best places to watch might be blue states where there’s no competitive statewide races driving turnout, Democratic governors are underperforming and GOP candidates have been able to seize on high crime and inflation,” he added.

Wasserman attributed the lack of a Democrat incumbent and newly drawn districts as some primary factors in shifting Cook’s projection away from Democrats. In nearly half of the races with changed ratings, the incumbent Democrats running for re-election face newly drawn maps with at least 45 percent of voters new to them which had given Republicans every opportunity to make gains in the vulnerable districts.

Those Democrats include Reps. Josh Harder (Calif.), Katie Porter (Calif.), Sean Casten (Ill.), Lauren Underwood (Ill.), and Andy Kim (N.J.).

Cook Political Report now rates the races as “leans Democrat” but shifted Porter’s race to “toss up.”

The report also shifted Oregon‘s 5th Congressional District towards Republicans, changing the rating from “toss up” to “leans Republicans. Progressive Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner has seen his edge over Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer shrink in recent weeks thanks to funding by national Republican groups.

Cook also shifted the ratings for two Long Island, NY districts with no Democrat incumbent from “lean Democrat” to “toss up.” Republicans have seen a resurgence of support among New York conservatives as the state has been plagued by record crime and violence under Democrat leadership.

In New York’s gubernatorial race Republican challenger Rep. Lee Zeldin has experienced a surge in polls recently as he seeks to defeat Gov. Kathy Hochul. The most recent Trafalgar Group poll reported the two candidates in a dead heat nearly a week before Election Day.(Related: Poll Shows Republican Edge Past Democrat in New York Governor’s Race)

In the remaining two races, Cook Political Report also attributed newly drawn districts as factors pointing to Democrat Reps. Julia Brownley (Calif.) and Joseph Morelle (N.Y.) impending downfall.

Brownley’s district, now rated “lean Democrat,” will this year include Simi Valley, a conservative area northwest of Los Angeles that is home to former President Reagan’s presidential library, which the Cook Report indicated shifted the district 5 points to the right.

Morelle, meanwhile, represents Rochester and other parts of upstate New York and is now vying to court voters in a map that now also includes parts of deep-red Orleans County.

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