While economists and politicians focus on when (or if) a recession is coming near, the big question – where the global economy is heading over the next few years – isn’t getting enough attention.
That’s a mistake, because the forces at work today will fundamentally reshape the way we live tomorrow. Writing in Foreign Affairs, Mohamed El-Erian says we may be witnessing “major structural and secular changes that will outlast the current business cycle.”
El-Erian identifies three major changes that are “likely to drive even more uncertainty in the future as shocks grow more frequent and more violent.”
One of those changes is the massive disruption of global supply chains. COVID-19 may have thrown sand in the global economic gears for a time. But the changes were already well underway before the pandemic got underway. But war, protectionism, fiscal recklessness, labor shortages and other issues have made a hash of the old “just in time” business model.
But it’s not the only change underway. Central banks, whose loose money policies created bubbles and malinvestment across the globe, are now playing catch-up. The end result may be painful, as several Fed officials have recently and repeatedly warned.
El-Erian believes greater government, central banker and corporate cooperation are needed to anticipate and react to future changes. He acknowledges it’s a “tall order,” but not impossible.
That’s a generous, not to say optimistic, reading of the current situation. A series of economic, political and security pacts in the post-World War II era gave stability and prosperity to parts of the globe. But the gains have been uneven to such a degree that populism, nationalism and other reductionist ideologies have flourished. Rolling this wave of discontent back is beyond the good intentions and grand schemes of the very organizations that helped create the current mess.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.
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Lot’s of people in my circle take about it. we just DON’T have the platforms. And if we did the only ones who know it are again our inner circles. This is the self destruction all pushed by the Rothschilds. Schwab, Soros and the cabals
EVERYONE is talking about it. Even those that flat out lie to serve their agenda are talking about it.