Trump Maintains Stranglehold On Republicans. Can Anyone Break It?

There’s a looming presidential election season out there, though it can be hard to tell from the daily news flow. But there are a few, very early inklings that the Republican contest is starting to get more focused.

Not that the GOP frontrunner, former President Donald Trump, was ever out of focus, the spotlight, or much else since leaving office in 2021. But there were stirrings, hopes and so on that the Republican faithful might look for someone new in 2024. They may still do that – remember, the first GOP presidential debate isn’t until August in Milwaukee.

But dislodging Trump from his first-place perch is going to take a lot more work than some believed. Consider the recent polling pitting Trump against possible challenger Gov. Ron DeSantis. The Florida governor may be a hit at home, but he’s still got a great deal to prove to the rest of the country, which, so far, seems underwhelmed. The obvious question is why? The New York Times’ Nate Cohn offers a few possibilities:

The DeSantis election bump is over. In the aftermath of the midterms, Mr. DeSantis benefited from extensive media coverage of his landslide win in Florida and Mr. Trump’s role in the G.O.P.’s disappointing showing.

Trump went on offense. Beginning in mid-to-late January, Mr. Trump began testing various lines of attack, criticizing Mr. DeSantis’s loyalty and his consistency on Covid issues. In early February on his Truth Social site, Mr. Trump shared a photo and posts suggesting Mr. DeSantis was “grooming” female students when he was a high school teacher two decades ago. He has kept up the pressure ever since.

DeSantis is on the sideline. When Mr. Trump attacked him, there was not much of a defense by Mr. DeSantis or counterattacks on Mr. Trump, whether by Mr. DeSantis or his allies. Mr. DeSantis hasn’t even declared his candidacy yet.

All very plausible explanations – but none of them ultimately fatal for a DeSantis run. But first, he has to get in the race. And even then, the questions about his candidacy are legion. As Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman write:

DeSantis is different — or at least might be different. We have no idea how he will perform as an actual presidential candidate, and the public’s perception of him is less solid. Maybe he enters the race, is well-received, and emerges more clearly as Trump’s chief rival, perhaps even surpassing the former president. Or maybe he flames out, as other seemingly formidable but ultimately unsuccessful candidates before him, like then-Texas Gov. Rick Perry after he was a relatively late entrant to the 2012 GOP presidential race. Perry skyrocketed to the top of the GOP field but then fell off quickly as he performed poorly as a candidate.

Current polling numbers are not going to help us project how DeSantis will actually perform. We don’t know what to expect — all we know is that we don’t know.

True. And there are other examples of formidable candidates – on paper – who flamed out in spectacular fashion. The wreckage from Trump’s successful 2016 nomination effort included Perry – again – and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who had a lot of money, a great political pedigree…and was out after South Carolina.

What does look increasingly true about the GOP nomination contest (at least right now): It’s a two-man race between Trump, who has declared, and DeSantis, who hasn’t.

Everyone else is, for intents and purposes, running for the VP slot on the eventual nominee’s ticket.

Again, it’s early, very early, But as Kondik and Coleman also note, it’s getting very late for someone else to get into this race and make a credible run for the nomination.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.

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