ANALYSIS – Russia’s Wagner mercenary group, reportedly run by (or through) Russian military intelligence (GRU), has played a pivotal role in Moscow’s efforts to expand its global sphere of influence, but its future is uncertain following the recent mutiny by Wagner’s leader. (RELATED: After Russia’s Brief Military Revolt, Are Putin’s Generals Still Vulnerable?)
For years now, Wagner Group has worked as a paramilitary security force for autocratic regimes across the Middle East and Africa, and, more recently, it has encroached into Latin America and the Caribbean.
The Wall Street Journal, though, reported that Vladimir Putin is moving to ‘Seize Control of Wagner’s ‘Global Empire,’ most of it in resource-rich Africa.
The Journal reported: “In the hours after Yevgeny Prigozhin’s army of ex-convicts and mercenaries halted their advance on Moscow, the Kremlin set out to seize full control of the global empire built by the notorious military entrepreneur.”
How it will do it and whether it will be successful is another question. (RELATED: Trump Reveals Conversation With Russia’s Putin That Delayed Invasion Of Ukraine)
The Journal added:
Russia, which for years denied any association with Wagner, appears to be trying to take over the far-flung mercenary network managed by Prigozhin and his lieutenants. After Saturday’s failed mutiny, it isn’t clear how much it can or how quickly.
Marat Gabidullin, a former Wagner commander in Syria, isn’t sure how the organization can survive without its founder.
For more than half a decade, Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group has been the leading actor in the Kremlin’s efforts to grow its influence, gaining friends – along with security services contracts and lucrative mining licenses – in half a dozen African countries.
Wagner has been active in some of the continent’s recent conflicts and has drawn its own funding from a mix of sources, including the above-mentioned mining concessions, but remains heavily dependent on Russian state backing, not least for logistical support.
The Kremlin has said Wagner’s activities in Africa will continue, but while it is seeking to take control of the mercenary group in Russia and Ukraine – including pushing Wagner to hand over its weapons – it has not indicated exactly how it will deal with the group’s African operations.
But there are indications that Moscow is simply trying to absorb Wagner’s foreign operations into its official military structures. (RELATED: Questions Swirl As Popular Russian General Goes Missing)
The Journal noted:
Russia’s deputy foreign minister flew to Damascus to personally deliver a message to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad: Wagner Group forces would no longer operate there independently. Senior Russian foreign ministry officials phoned the president of the Central African Republic, whose personal bodyguards include Wagner mercenaries, offering assurances that Saturday’s crisis wouldn’t derail Russia’s expansion into Africa. Government jets from Russia’s Ministry of Emergency Situations shuttled from Syria to Mali, another of Wagner’s key foreign outposts.
The rush of diplomatic activity reflected Vladimir Putin’s attempt to play down the chaos at home and to assure Russia’s partners in Africa and the Middle East that Wagner operations there would continue without interruption according to diplomats and intelligence officers, Wagner defectors, people briefed on the conversations and a review of international flight data. From now on, however, in Moscow’s preferred outcome, those operations would be under new management.
But this could provide the United States with a unique opportunity to replace Russia and China in Africa. Or at least dent their influence and ambitions.
As the Journal notes:
The fate of Wagner operations now hinges on whether the Kremlin can simultaneously marginalize Prigozhin and maintain the empire he built on three continents. Some national security officials, sizing up the prospects, say Washington may have an opening to regain influence on a continent where Russia and China have been digging in.
That all depends on how effective Putin is but also on whether Team Biden is up to the task.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.
Biden is not going to do anything that goes against his Chinese paymasters. The USA is a vassal country to the PRC. Now CHINA will of course take advantage of the situation. It pretends to support Putin but it onlt supports Putin to the degree that he keeps the USA and NATO preoccupied and unable to respond efectively when the PRC invades Taiwan.
Absorb into Russian Army alone
The leadership for Wagner can either be “cleaned up” (Hilleryized) or absorbed and undergo re-education. Regardless, Putin will be fool to leave this nest of snakes unchecked.