BREAKING – While initial reports from Russia say Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the once powerful paramilitary Wagner Group, died in a plane crash near Moscow, others say the plane was shot down by Russian air defenses. (RELATED: Wagner Group Leader Killed In Plane Crash)
The Gray Zone telegram channel, associated with the Wagner Group, said that the plane was allegedly shot down by a Russian surface to air missile (SAM).
Still others speculate that Prigozhin is alive, and he transferred to a second almost identical aircraft reportedly flying near Moscow at the time.
Dmitry Gorenburg, a senior researcher at the Center for Naval Analysis, told Newsweek that although Prigozhin could have been aboard the second plane that safely landed, he offered an 80 percent probability that the Wagner chief is dead and that Russian air defense systems were responsible.
Videos reportedly show the private plane carrying Prigozhin and nine others coming down.
The plane, an Embraer Legacy 600 business aircraft reportedly had the registration number RA-02795, was said to belong to Prigozhin. It was traveling from Moscow to St. Petersburg when it was downed.
Right now, we will go with the more likely scenario that he was killed by Vladimir Putin. Prigozhin was a dead man walking since his aborted Wagner coup against the Kremlin in late June.
I noted in my piece on the coup that from then on he should refrain from windows in tall buildings.
The short-lived Wagner mutiny led to a deal between the Kremlin and Prigozhin negotiated by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko that would allow Prigozhin and his men to seek refuge in Belarus. (RELATED: Did Putin ‘Humiliate’ China’s Leader Xi By Deploying Nukes To Belarus?)
That deal never materialized since Prigozhin never went to Belarus and Prigozhin seemed to have found a new purpose on the ‘dark continent.’
I was preparing to write about Prigozhin’s latest video, pushed out by the Gray Zone, promoting a new “mission” for his mercenaries in Africa with an expanded footprint.
But reports of his death may make that issue moot.
Meanwhile, some are predicting a second attempt by Wagner mercenaries to overthrow Putin if Prigozhin is dead.
Retired U.S. Lieutenant General Mark Hertling referred to reports on Wagner telegram channels that said: “if the death of the head of the PMC Wagner #Prigozhin was confirmed, they would organise a second “March of Justice” to #Moscow.”
Hertling said:
“Those reacting to Prigozhin *possibly* being on the downed aircraft needs [sic] to understand the ‘loyalty’ (because he pays well) he has from his mercs. Putin support is slowly declining in Russia…this won’t help with thousands of Wagnerites & their families.”
However, there are unconfirmed reports that Dmitry Utkin, a Wagner co-founder and high-ranking commander close to Prigozhin, was also killed in the crash. This would make any Wagner retaliation much harder.
As Newsweek reported:
“If that’s true and they’re both dead, then it becomes much more questionable whether Wagner can continue as kind of an independent organization,” Gorenburg [at CNA] said. “They may get subsumed by other PMCs (private military companies) more controllable by Russian MODs or Russian military intelligence. That could be the future.”
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.
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