Despite Nikki Haley’s stubbornness, the race for the Republican presidential nomination appears over.
Former President Donald Trump notched a clear victory in last night’s New Hampshire primary — but warning signs from exiting polling suggest a general election victory may not come easily.
CBS News found over 10% of Republicans would be so unsatisfied with Trump as the nominee they either wouldn’t vote — or would consider supporting President Joe Biden.
Political scientists hypothesize that in our polarized political climate, nominees must win over 90% of their party’s registered voters. With opinions of Trump having largely congealed, the results validate concerns by some Republicans that Trump must curb his behavior.
Even with his campaign mostly ahead in the all-important swing states.
Worse, Newsweek writes, the percentage of New Hampshire Republicans who would support Trump in the event of his conviction drops precipitously:
The poll found that 47 percent of GOP primary voters said they believe Trump would be unfit to serve as president if he is convicted of a crime in one of his four criminal trials. Trump has maintained his innocence in each case, pleading not guilty to all charges.
Fifty percent, however, said they believe he would still be fit to serve if convicted. The poll found that 85 percent of Haley voters were more likely to believe a conviction would render him unfit, compared to 11 percent of Trump voters. Only 12 percent of Haley voters said they believe Trump would still be fit to serve if he gets convicted. Among Trump voters, that number was 86 percent, according to the poll.
That figure notably included many independent voters, who opted to vote in the Republican primary. Haley in particular aimed to garner support from these voters, as a key component of her campaign messaging is that she would be a more electable candidate than Trump against a Democrat.
Some political experts have said that the felony charges leveled against Trump have helped Republicans coalesce around the former president in the primary. But polls have suggested a conviction may hurt Trump in the general election.
As Trump celebrated in New Hampshire, the latest Susquehanna Polling and Research survey showed Biden with a 7.5-point lead in Pennsylvania. The opening may be an outlier. Still, it suggests that Trump is underperforming with Republicans and independents have noticed positive economic indicators.
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