The prospect of a summer offensive by Russia in Ukraine appears increasingly likely, given the Kremlin's apparent preparations in spite of considerable losses. Reinforcements from allies like North Korea could provide the necessary ammunition for a prolonged operation.
An essential factor in Russia's ability to retain the strategic initiative is materiel support from friendly nations, including North Korea. South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik told Bloomberg on Friday that Seoul has tracked approximately 10,000 containers from Pyongyang to Russia, capable of carrying an estimated 4.8 million artillery shells.
The United States has sent over two million 155 mm artillery shells (standard NATO caliber) to Ukraine since Vladimir Putin's invasion began. Depending on the contents of the packages, the North Korean supplies could significantly bolster Russia's capacity for sustained artillery barrages, a hallmark of its offensive strategy. (RELATED: Air Force Welcomes Controversial Group Leader – Sparks Debate On Children's Issues)
Shin's claim came days before North Korea confirmed Putin's imminent visit with Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un following months of speculation:
The Kremlin has described the event as a “friendly state visit” with Russian media reporting Mr Putin and Mr Kim may sign a partnership agreement, including on security issues, and give joint statements to the press.
But why does it matter and why now?
Firstly, there is a natural curiosity given it will only be Mr Putin's second time in North Korea – the first being in 2000 at the start of his presidential career, when Mr Kim's father, Kim Jong-Il, was still supreme leader.
But beyond that, this is a relationship that (though not at the levels enjoyed during the Soviet Union) has now gone from mutual pleasantries to mutual benefits, and it has the West worried.
The Kremlin likes to claim that Western leaders need not be concerned about the burgeoning relationship. They argue that those who are have an outdated way of thinking.
Regardless, the countries' meeting to discuss expanding military cooperation is scheduled to begin on Tuesday.
Analysts predict that the Donbas region, specifically the areas around Bakhmut and Severodonetsk, could be primary targets for a renewed Russian assault. Their strategic significance is apparent due to their industrial infrastructure and logistical importance.
Another potential focus is the southern front, particularly towards Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, aiming to secure a land corridor to Russian-occupied Crimea and disrupt Ukrainian supply lines. (RELATED: GOP Senator Claims Putin Doesn't Want Ukraine – ‘He's Got Enough Land')
The primary aims of any new Russian offensive are likely to include:
- Securing and expanding territorial gains: Ensuring control over the Donbas region and possibly pushing further west to exert more pressure on Kyiv.
- Disrupting Ukrainian logistics and morale: By launching attacks on critical infrastructure and supply routes.
- Forcing Ukrainian redeployments: Spreading Ukraine's defenses thin to create opportunities for breakthroughs in multiple sectors.
Russia's cross-border shelling and raids in the Kharkiv region have already had a strategic dimension beyond immediate tactical gains. Despite their heavy cost, the attacks have compelled Ukraine to bolster defenses in the north, potentially diverting troops and resources from other critical fronts.
Whether this will benefit Russian operations in the eastern and southern theaters remains to be seen.
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